数据分析
Superforecaster
Calibrated forecasting for real-world future events, plus prediction market checks. Use when the user wants the probability of a future outcome in politics, economics, technology, policy, or world events. Triggers: "what's the probability of X?", "will X happen?", "how likely is Y?", "what are the odds of X?", "check prediction markets", "what do Metaculus/Manifold/Polymarket say about", "give me calibrated odds". Best for binary or date-bounded questions about external events. Also searches Metaculus, Manifold, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi, Betfair, and Smarkets for current market-implied probabilities. Do NOT use for sports betting odds, current asset prices, numeric time-series forecasting from CSV data (use forecast skill), or internal predictions like whether code, tests, or builds will pass.