금융 및 투자
Bayesian Updating
Bayesian posterior updates for trading beliefs — beta-binomial conjugate for binary markets (prior Beta(a,b), observe k wins in n, posterior Beta(a+k, b+n-k)), Gaussian-Gaussian conjugate for continuous return series, Bayesian A/B test comparing two strategies (posterior probability strategy A beats B), and credible-interval reporting. Use when the user says "update my prior", "Bayesian belief on this market", "how confident am I after seeing evidence", "compare two strategies probabilistically", or anything Bayesian.