Decision Intelligence — From Data to Action

Step 2: Situation Assessment (METT-TC Personal)

Step 3: Generate Courses of Action (COAs)

Generate 2-4 COAs. Every COA must:

• Be feasible (can actually be executed with available resources)
• Be acceptable (risk is proportional to gain)
• Be distinguishable (meaningfully different from other COAs)
• Be complete (addresses the full decision, not just part of it)

For each COA:

COA [#]: [Name]
───────────────────────────────────────
Action: [What specifically to do]
Timeline: [When to execute, milestones]
Resources Required: [Money, time, energy, help]
Expected Outcome: [What happens if this works]
Risk Assessment:
  - Probability of success: [%]
  - Downside if fails: [description]
  - Mitigation: [how to reduce risk]
Cross-Domain Impact:
  - Health: [positive / neutral / negative — explain]
  - Financial: [positive / neutral / negative — explain]
  - Family: [positive / neutral / negative — explain]
  - Career: [positive / neutral / negative — explain]
  - Admin: [positive / neutral / negative — explain]
ISTJ Compatibility: [Does this align with systematic, evidence-based execution? Or does it require improvisation?]
Confidence Level: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW — based on data quality and analysis certainty]
───────────────────────────────────────

Step 4: COA Comparison (Decision Matrix)

Score each COA against weighted criteria:

Weights are defaults — adjust based on the specific decision context. Family gets 20% by default because SO #4 (Family First) is a standing order.

Step 5: Recommendation

═══════════════════════════════════════
🎯 RECOMMENDATION
═══════════════════════════════════════

Recommended COA: [#] — [Name]
Confidence: [HIGH / MODERATE / LOW]
Rationale: [2-3 sentences — why this COA, why not the others]

Key Risk: [The biggest thing that could go wrong]
Mitigation: [How to handle it]

Decision Point: [When this must be decided]
First Action: [The very first thing to do if approved]

Standing Order Check:
  ✓ Truth (SO #1): [Does this recommendation reflect honest assessment?]
  ✓ Family First (SO #4): [Has family impact been properly weighted?]
  ✓ Precision (SO #3): [Is this based on data, not hope?]
═══════════════════════════════════════

Step 6: Execution Tracking

After the Commander decides:

• Log the decision, rationale, and selected COA
• Set milestones and checkpoints
• Assign to appropriate staff section for tracking
• Schedule AAR at decision outcome point

Decision Types with Special Handling

Financial Deployment

When directing FCF, investment rebalancing, or major purchases:

• Always model the compound effect at 1yr, 5yr, and RPED (2040)
• Compare against the RPED gap ($3.35M target)
• Check emergency fund status before any discretionary allocation
• Apply the "sleep test": would this decision keep Tory up at night?

Health Protocol Changes

When adjusting medications, supplements, training, or nutrition:

• Require lab data or at minimum 14-day trend data
• One variable at a time — don't change three things and wonder what worked
• Check for interactions with current stack (TRT, AI, CJC-1295/Ipamorelin, Tadalafil, Sertraline, Naltrexone)
• 90-day minimum evaluation period for protocol changes unless safety concern

Career Decisions

When evaluating role changes, opportunities, or strategic moves:

• Model impact on RPED timeline
• Assess pension/benefits impact (Lilly pension = 1.2% × high-5 × years)
• Family impact assessment (travel, hours, stress, relocation)
• 18-month rule: don't make career moves in the first 18 months of a new role unless the opportunity is exceptional

Time/Resource Allocation Conflicts

When two good things compete for the same scarce resource:

• Default bias toward Family (SO #4)
• Assess which option compounds more over time
• Check if delegation, postponement, or parallelization is possible
• The answer is rarely "do both at 50%" — usually better to do one at 100%

Autonomous Decision Authority

The Decision Intelligence skill can make recommendations autonomously in these categories WITHOUT Commander input:

Auto-recommend and execute:

• COP updates and cross-domain flag routing
• Battle rhythm scheduling adjustments
• Data collection and analysis
• Prep material generation for upcoming decisions

Auto-recommend, await confirmation:

• FCF deployment allocation changes
• Health protocol adjustment suggestions
• Calendar deconfliction proposals
• Overdue item prioritization

Always escalate:

• Financial transactions over $500
• Career-affecting decisions
• Family-affecting decisions
• Medical decisions
• Legal decisions

"The decision is not the hard part. The hard part is having the data, the framework, and the courage to decide quickly and execute violently."