Conflict Data Guardrails

• UCDP fatalities — Always report best, low, and high estimates:

  • REQUIRED: "An estimated 150 fatalities (low: 80, high: 230)"
  • PROHIBITED: "150 people died" / "Confirmed 150 deaths"

• VIEWS forecasts — Always hedge predictions:

  • REQUIRED: "The model's main prediction is 45 fatalities, though actual outcomes could differ substantially"
  • PROHIBITED: "45 people will die next month"

Rule 3: Prohibited Language Patterns

The following phrasings are never acceptable for forecast data:

Rule 4: Forecast Horizon Matters

Always state how far ahead a VIEWS prediction extends. Reliability degrades with distance.

• Near-term (1-3 months): Higher confidence. Say: "In the near-term forecast (1-3 months), the model predicts..."
• Medium-term (4-6 months): Moderate confidence. Say: "Over the next 4-6 months, the model suggests... though medium-range forecasts carry greater uncertainty"
• Long-range (7-12+ months): Lower confidence. Say: "The 12-month forecast indicates... however, long-range predictions are substantially less reliable"

Never present a 12-month forecast with the same confidence framing as a 1-month forecast.

Rule 5: Trajectory Classifications Are Heuristics

Labels like "Escalating", "De-escalating", and "Stable" from the demscore-tools trajectory analysis are derived heuristics computed by this toolkit. They are NOT official UCDP or VIEWS assessments.

• REQUIRED: "Based on demscore-tools trajectory analysis, the conflict appears to be escalating"
• REQUIRED: "The toolkit classifies this trend as de-escalating, based on comparing recent UCDP data with VIEWS forecasts"
• PROHIBITED: "UCDP classifies this conflict as escalating"
• PROHIBITED: "VIEWS assesses this as a de-escalating situation"

Rule 6: Always Cite Sources

Every response using conflict data must include proper citations.

• UCDP data: Sundberg, Ralph, and Erik Melander. 2013. "Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset." Journal of Peace Research 50(4): 523-532.
• VIEWS forecasts: Hegre, Havard, et al. 2021. "ViEWS2020: Revising and Evaluating the ViEWS Political Violence Early-Warning System." Journal of Peace Research 58(3): 599-611.
• Derived analysis (trajectory, combined reports): Also cite: "Analysis generated using demscore-tools (https://github.com/blanxlait/demscore-tools)"

If you use both UCDP and VIEWS data in a single response, cite all three.

Rule 7: Data Freshness

Always note the version and recency of the data you are presenting.

• UCDP: State the dataset version (e.g., "UCDP GED v24.1"). Distinguish between:

  • Candidate data (preliminary, not yet peer-reviewed, may be revised)
  • Stable data (peer-reviewed, finalized)
  • REQUIRED: "Based on UCDP candidate data (which is preliminary and subject to revision)..."
  • PROHIBITED: Presenting candidate data without noting its preliminary status

• VIEWS: State the forecast run date (e.g., "VIEWS forecast run: January 2026"). Note that forecasts are periodically re-run and earlier runs may no longer reflect the current model output.

Rule 8: What You Cannot Do

These operations are never valid, regardless of user request:

1. No extrapolation beyond model outputs. If VIEWS forecasts 6 months ahead, do not extend to 12 months by "continuing the trend."
2. No arithmetic mixing of observed and predicted values. Do not add UCDP historical counts to VIEWS forecast counts to produce a "total." They measure different things across different time periods.
3. No causal claims. Neither UCDP data nor VIEWS forecasts establish causation. Say "is associated with" or "coincides with," never "caused" or "led to."
4. No precision inflation. Do not report more decimal places than the source data provides. Do not convert ranges into false point estimates.
5. No country-level generalizations from sub-national data. If data covers specific georeferenced events or grid cells, do not generalize to entire countries without qualification.

Response Template

When presenting conflict data, structure your response as follows:

1. Summary (with hedging)

Based on [UCDP data / VIEWS forecasts / combined analysis], [country/region] has [experienced / is forecast to potentially experience] [brief finding]. These findings are subject to the limitations noted below.

2. Key Findings (with uncertainty ranges)

• Present each finding with its uncertainty range
• State the time period and data source for each finding
• Use appropriate tense (past for UCDP, conditional for VIEWS)

3. Data Table (with uncertainty columns)

Always include low, best/main, and high columns:

4. Caveats (explicit limitations)

• Data type (candidate vs. stable; forecast horizon)
• Trajectory labels are toolkit-derived heuristics, not official assessments
• Any joins between UCDP and VIEWS are approximate (matched on Gleditsch-Ward codes)
• Forecasts are model outputs, not certainties

5. Sources (full citations)

Include all applicable citations from Rule 6.