Parallax Scenario Analysis

Phase 2: Assess Portfolio Exposure (parallel after Phase 1)

Fire 4-5 simultaneously:

Then call get_assessment with a prompt that:

• Describes the scenario
• Lists each holding with its sector and factor profile
• Asks: "Rank these holdings from most-exposed to least-exposed to this scenario. For each, explain the transmission mechanism (direct revenue impact, supply chain, regulatory, sentiment)."

Phase 3: Sector Rotation & Replacement Candidates

7. Identify Beneficiaries — Call build_stock_universe with a theme describing what benefits from this scenario (e.g., "domestic US semiconductor manufacturers" if China tariffs hit imports).
8. Score Beneficiaries — Call get_peer_snapshot for top 5 candidates from the universe build.
9. Compare Replacements — For the top 2-3 replacement candidates, call get_financials with statement "summary" to verify they're fundamentally sound, not just thematically relevant.

Phase 4: Action Plan

10. Synthesize — Call get_assessment with a comprehensive prompt incorporating:
    • The scenario and its transmission mechanisms
    • Portfolio exposure ranking from step 6
    • Macro regime and tactical outlook
    • Replacement candidates and their scores
    • Ask: "Given this scenario, what specific portfolio adjustments should be considered? Prioritize by urgency and magnitude of exposure."

Output Format

• Scenario Summary (what happened, why it matters — 2-3 sentences)
• Macro Regime Impact (how this shifts the current regime, which factors are affected)
• Exposure Heat Map (table: each holding ranked by exposure level — High/Medium/Low — with transmission mechanism)
• Most Exposed (the 2-3 holdings at greatest risk, with specific reasoning)
• Least Affected (safe positions — brief explanation why)
• Sector Rotation Thesis (what benefits from this scenario)
• Replacement Candidates (table: symbol, name, sector, total score, why it fits)
• Action Plan (prioritized list: what to trim/sell, what to add, what to hold — with specific weight suggestions)
• What to Watch (2-3 signals that would confirm or invalidate this thesis)
• Confidence & Caveats (how certain is this analysis, what could go wrong with the rotation)

"This is scenario-based analysis, not investment advice. Forward-looking assessments are inherently uncertain."