Submission format for numeric forecasting questions with critical LOG SCORING warnings about overconfidence. Use when submitting numeric/continuous question forecasts.
Metaculus uses LOG SCORING which severely punishes overconfidence:
Before submitting, ask yourself: "What if my central estimate is completely wrong?"
percentiles: Dict with STRING keys (all 15 required, STRICTLY INCREASING):
"1", "5", "10", "20", "25", "30", "40", "50", "60", "70", "75", "80", "90", "95", "99"
CRITICAL VALIDATION RULES (Common errors that will cause REJECTION):
{"1": 100, "5": 100, "10": 100} ← VALUES MUST DIFFER!{"1": 100, "5": 102, "10": 105} ← Each strictly greater{"40": 50, "50": 50, "60": 55} ← 50 = 50 is NOT > !{"40": 48, "50": 50, "60": 52} ← Each value increases{"1": "100", "5": "105"} ← Don't quote values{"1": 100, "5": 105} ← Plain numbersBefore submitting, verify:
# For a question with range 0-100
mcp__forecaster__submit_forecast_numeric(
percentiles={
"1": 20, # 99% confident above this
"5": 30,
"10": 35,
"20": 40,
"25": 42,
"30": 44,
"40": 47,
"50": 50, # Median estimate
"60": 53,
"70": 56,
"75": 58,
"80": 60,
"90": 65,
"95": 70,
"99": 80 # 99% confident below this
},
reasoning_summary="Base rate 50, historical volatility suggests 10th-90th range of 35-65"
)
Bad Example (too narrow, will be penalized):
percentiles={
"1": 49, "5": 49.5, "10": 49.7, ..., "99": 50.3 # ❌ TOO TIGHT!
}