Kalshi Oneway Skill

Example market object:

{
	"ticker": "KXMLBF5TOTAL-26MAR252005NYYSF-7",
	"rules_primary": "If New York Y and San Francisco collectively score more than 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings of the New York Y vs San Francisco professional baseball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026 at 8:05 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.",
	"rules_secondary": "If this game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished (within two days)."
}

Step 2: Compare Market Pairs

Compare every possible pair of markets to determine if they could end up being a matching market pair. Use these rules to check if this could possibly happen:

Deterministic matching checklist

For each market (primarily using rules_primary), extract and normalize:

• Sport/league (NBA/MLB/NHL/etc.)
• Teams/participants (canonical team names when applicable)
• Event identity (who vs who, plus round/game qualifiers)
• Timing (scheduled date/time window if present)
• Market type (future vs single-event vs series; and prop type like totals/spread/moneyline)

Only consider two markets a plausible matching pair if all are true:

• Same sport and league after normalization
• Same underlying event identity, OR an explicitly equivalent end-condition (for a futures ↔ event convergence case)
• Compatible market types (they resolve on the same real-world outcome)

Do not match unless… (guardrails)

Reject candidate pairs when any of these differ materially:

• League level (e.g., NBA vs NCAA)
• Season/year or scheduled date window (when rule text specifies it)
• Participants/teams (after applying aliases)
• Event stage/round (regular season vs playoffs; Finals Game 7 vs Finals Game 6; etc.)

Treat rules_secondary clauses (e.g., postponement/reschedule windows) as settlement mechanics; they typically do not change the underlying event identity.

Normalization / Alias Map

Kalshi market titles/rules may use different naming conventions for the same underlying league/team. Before deciding whether two markets are about the same sport/league/team, normalize the text (especially inside rules_primary) using the alias map.

Basic normalization (apply before alias lookup):

• lowercase for comparisons
• strip punctuation and collapse repeated whitespace
• normalize common shorthands where context supports it (e.g., "LA" → "Los Angeles")

League aliases:

• "Pro Basketball" → "NBA"
• "Pro Baseball" → "MLB"

Team aliases:

• "Los Angeles L" → "Los Angeles Lakers"
• "Los Angeles C" → "Los Angeles Clippers"
• "Los Angeles A" → "Los Angeles Angels"
• "Los Angeles D" → "Los Angeles Dodgers"
• "New York Y" → "New York Yankees"
• "New York M" → "New York Mets"
• "Chicago C" → "Chicago Cubs"
• "Chicago WS" → "Chicago White Sox"

Notes:

• Prefer the most specific canonical name (e.g., team full name over shorthand).
• Apply aliases consistently across both markets before comparing.
• If an alias could be ambiguous (e.g., "Los Angeles A"), use league context from the rule text (e.g., "professional baseball" → MLB) to disambiguate.

The actual relationship should go be one where the game market for a particular team/player should be less than or equal to a futures market. Some examples of this are:

• First round of Knockout Tournament vs College Basketball Champion
  • It is clear to see that the probability of winning the championship can't be higher than winning the first game of the tournament
• Team winning their next game vs Team going undefeated in a season
  • It can be seen that in order for a team to go undefeated, they need to win every game, thus this market should be trading lower than the market for their next game.

Step 3: Explain Reasoning

When proposing a matching market pair, include:

• the two market ticker values
• a short explanation of why they refer to the same underlying event/end condition (using the normalized league/teams/timing/market-type reasoning)

Print each candidate pair on its own, and keep reasoning concise and specific.