Bio Epidemiological Genomics Transmission Inference

Prepare Data

def prepare_for_transphylo(dated_tree_file, sample_dates, output_prefix):
    '''Prepare inputs for TransPhylo analysis

    Requirements:
    - Time-scaled phylogeny (from TreeTime or BEAST)
    - Sample collection dates
    - Tips must have matching names

    TransPhylo estimates:
    - Who infected whom
    - Unsampled cases in the transmission chain
    - R0 and generation time
    '''
    from Bio import Phylo
    import pandas as pd

    tree = Phylo.read(dated_tree_file, 'nexus')

    # Verify all tips have dates
    dates_df = pd.read_csv(sample_dates, sep='\t')
    tip_names = {clade.name for clade in tree.get_terminals()}
    dated_names = set(dates_df['name'])

    missing = tip_names - dated_names
    if missing:
        print(f'Warning: {len(missing)} tips without dates: {missing}')

    return {'tree': dated_tree_file, 'dates': sample_dates}

Interpret Results

# Analyze TransPhylo output

# Get median transmission tree
med_tree <- medTTree(res)

# Plot transmission tree
plot(med_tree)

# Get R0 estimate
r0_samples <- res$record[, 'off.r']
cat('R0 estimate:', median(r0_samples), '\n')
cat('95% CI:', quantile(r0_samples, c(0.025, 0.975)), '\n')

# Identify superspreaders
# Count number infected by each case
infections_per_case <- table(med_tree$ttree[, 'infector'])
superspreaders <- names(infections_per_case[infections_per_case > 3])

Python Alternative: outbreaker2 Wrapper

Goal: Infer likely transmission pairs from genomic distance and collection dates without requiring a dated phylogeny.

Approach: For each pair of samples, check that the potential infector was sampled earlier, that the time interval is compatible with the generation time, and that the SNP distance is consistent with direct transmission.

def infer_transmission_simple(distance_matrix, dates, generation_time=5):
    '''Simplified transmission inference

    Uses genomic distance and collection dates to infer likely
    transmission pairs. Less sophisticated than TransPhylo but
    doesn't require dated phylogeny.

    Criteria for transmission pair (A -> B):
    1. A collected before B
    2. Genomic distance consistent with direct transmission
    3. Time difference compatible with generation time
    '''
    import pandas as pd
    import numpy as np

    n = len(dates)
    transmission_pairs = []

    for i in range(n):
        for j in range(n):
            if i == j:
                continue

            time_diff = dates[j] - dates[i]  # Days between collection

            # Potential infector must be sampled first
            if time_diff <= 0:
                continue

            # Check if time difference is compatible
            # Generation time: time between infection of case and infection of secondary
            # Serial interval: time between symptom onset (often used as proxy)
            if time_diff > generation_time * 3:  # Too much time
                continue

            # Check genomic distance
            snp_diff = distance_matrix[i, j]

            # Expected SNPs = rate * time
            # For most pathogens, direct transmission = 0-5 SNP difference
            expected_snps = (time_diff / 365) * 10  # Rough estimate

            if snp_diff <= max(5, expected_snps * 2):
                transmission_pairs.append({
                    'infector': i,
                    'infectee': j,
                    'snp_distance': snp_diff,
                    'days_between': time_diff,
                    'confidence': 'high' if snp_diff <= 2 else 'moderate'
                })

    return pd.DataFrame(transmission_pairs)

Network Visualization

Goal: Visualize the inferred transmission chain as a directed network graph showing who infected whom.

Approach: Build a directed NetworkX graph from transmission pairs and render it with spring layout, directional arrows, and labeled nodes.

def plot_transmission_network(pairs_df, metadata=None):
    '''Visualize transmission network

    Uses networkx to create directed graph of transmissions.
    '''
    import networkx as nx
    import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

    G = nx.DiGraph()

    for _, row in pairs_df.iterrows():
        G.add_edge(row['infector'], row['infectee'],
                   weight=row.get('confidence', 1))

    # Layout
    pos = nx.spring_layout(G)

    # Draw
    plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
    nx.draw(G, pos, with_labels=True, node_color='lightblue',
            node_size=500, arrows=True, arrowsize=20)

    plt.title('Transmission Network')
    return plt.gcf()

Superspreader Analysis

def identify_superspreaders(transmission_pairs, threshold=3):
    '''Identify superspreading events

    Superspreader: Individual who infected many others
    Threshold typically 80/20 rule: 20% of cases cause 80% of transmission

    Common threshold: >3 secondary cases
    '''
    from collections import Counter

    infector_counts = Counter(transmission_pairs['infector'])

    superspreaders = {k: v for k, v in infector_counts.items() if v >= threshold}

    total_transmissions = sum(infector_counts.values())
    ss_transmissions = sum(superspreaders.values())

    print(f'Superspreaders (>{threshold} secondary cases):')
    for ss, count in sorted(superspreaders.items(), key=lambda x: -x[1]):
        print(f'  Case {ss}: {count} secondary infections')

    print(f'\nSuperspreading contribution: {ss_transmissions/total_transmissions:.1%}')

    return superspreaders

Related Skills

• epidemiological-genomics/phylodynamics - Generate dated trees
• epidemiological-genomics/pathogen-typing - Identify outbreak clones
• data-visualization/interactive-visualization - Visualize transmission