Geopolitical Analysis

3. Historical Context

• What is the history between these actors? (colonial, alliance, conflict)
• What previous deals/attempts look like this? (use historical-parallel skill)
• What promises were made before and what actually happened?
• What grievances or debts influence the current dynamic?

4. Domestic vs International Incentives

• Is the leader speaking to a domestic audience or an international one?
• Does the statement serve domestic political survival more than foreign policy?
• What internal pressures drive the external positioning?
• Is this a distraction from domestic failures?

5. Alliance & Opposition Structure

• Who supports this arrangement? Why?
• Who opposes it? Why?
• What regional or global rivalries does this fit into? (US-China, etc.)
• Whose influence increases or decreases as a result?

6. Cui Bono (Who Benefits?)

• Short-term beneficiaries vs long-term beneficiaries
• Who benefits from the DEAL vs who benefits from the NARRATIVE
• What does each side give up? Is it proportional?
• Who bears the costs? (often not the ones at the table)

Output Format

## Geopolitical Analysis: [Event/Deal/Statement]

### Context
[What happened and who said what]

### Power Dynamics
- **Actor A:** [Leverage, position, goals]
- **Actor B:** [Leverage, position, goals]
- **Asymmetry:** [Who needs whom more]

### Resource Interests
- [What's at stake materially]
- [Trade/economic dependencies]

### Historical Precedent
- [Similar past events and their outcomes]

### Domestic Politics
- [How this serves each leader's domestic audience]

### Cui Bono
- **Short-term:** [Who benefits now]
- **Long-term:** [Who benefits over time]
- **Who pays:** [Who bears the cost]

### Assessment
[What's really happening vs what's being said]
**Confidence:** [High / Medium / Low]

Guidelines

• Maps are not territories. Geopolitical analysis is always a simplification — state your assumptions
• Every actor is rational from their own perspective, even when their actions seem foolish from outside
• Beware of narrative framing — "partnership" often means one side has leverage, "aid" often comes with strings
• Always check who is NOT at the table but will be affected by the outcome
• A leader's statement tells you about their audience, not necessarily about reality
• Pair with historical-parallel, multi-perspective, and mental-models for depth