Market Equity

DB-first: do not require data/agent-cache/daily. If you need refreshed numbers, run ./scripts/fetch-market-data.sh (writes legacy archive summaries) or use MCP sources. If that fails (sandbox), follow skills/mcp-data-fetch/SKILL.md for MCP-based data fetch. Web fetch: use defuddle parse <url> --md instead of WebFetch for any news article, breadth site, earnings page, or analyst note URL. Not for API endpoints, .json, or .md files.

Research Steps

1. Index Overview

Search for current levels and % change for:

• S&P 500 (SPY), NASDAQ 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), Dow (DIA)
• Note if any index is testing key technical levels (52-week high/low, major MA, prior resistance)

2. Sector Rotation

Check performance of all 11 S&P sectors (XLK, XLF, XLE, XLV, XLI, XLRE, XLU, XLY, XLP, XLB, XLC).

• Which sectors are leading and lagging TODAY?
• What does sector rotation imply about risk appetite? (e.g., XLU/XLP leading = defensive rotation)
• Is this consistent with recent rotation from prior outputs or a change?

3. Watchlist Movers

For each equity in the user's watchlist:

• Any notable % move today?
• Any news, earnings, analyst actions, or catalysts?
• Any approaching key technical levels?

4. Earnings Calendar

• What major earnings are reported today or after close?
• Any major earnings tomorrow pre-market?
• Note any earnings that could have sector-wide read-throughs

5. Market Breadth (Advanced)

• NYSE Advance/Decline line: rising or falling vs index?
• New 52W highs vs new 52W lows: is the market broadening or narrowing?
• % of S&P 500 stocks above 200-DMA: >70% = healthy; <50% = narrow leadership
• % of S&P 500 stocks above 50-DMA: momentum breadth
• McClellan Oscillator or summation if available
• A/D divergence: if index makes new high but A/D doesn't → bearish divergence

6. Factor Performance Today

• Value (VTV, IVE): outperforming or underperforming growth?
• Growth (VUG, IVW): risk-on or risk-off signal
• Momentum (MTUM): is momentum factor working or reversing?
• Quality (QUAL): defensive quality premium expanding or shrinking?
• Small Cap (IWM) vs Large Cap (SPY): risk appetite signal
• Dividend/Income (VYM, DVY): safe haven demand?
• Factor read: what does today's factor performance say about regime and risk appetite?

7. Technicals (Market-Wide)

• Is the broad market in an uptrend, downtrend, or consolidation?
• VIX level (from options output) — cross-reference
• Any notable divergences (e.g., index at highs but breadth deteriorating)
• Key support/resistance for SPY: 50-DMA, 200-DMA, prior swing lows/highs

Note: International equities are covered in full by skills/international/SKILL.md. Only note overnight DM performance here for context.

Output Format

### 📈 EQUITIES
**Bias**: [Bullish / Bearish / Neutral / Conflicted]

**Index Levels**: [SPY, QQQ, IWM — price, % change, key level notes]

**Sector Rotation**: [Leading: ... | Lagging: ... | Implication: ...]

**Watchlist Movers**: [Notable moves with brief reason]

**Earnings Today**: [Key names + reaction if available]

**Technical Read**: [Trend, VIX, breadth summary]

**Market Breadth**: A/D: [X:X] | 52W H/L: [X/X] | % above 200D: X% | [Healthy/Narrow/Deteriorating]

**Factor Read**: [Leading: Value/Growth/Momentum/Quality | Lagging: which] | [Risk-on or defensive rotation?]

**Watch**: [1-2 things to monitor in next 24-48h]

**Note**: Full sector-by-sector analysis in sector sub-agent outputs. International in international.md.