Scenario Narrative Generator

Scenario Elements

# Define scenario elements
scenario_elements = {
    "scenario_name": "AI Explosion",
    "driving_forces": {
        "technology": "AI capabilities advance rapidly, with AGI breakthroughs",
        "economy": "Massive productivity gains fuel economic growth",
        "society": "Workforce disruption creates social tension",
        "regulation": "Governments adopt innovation-friendly policies"
    },
    "key_events": [
        {"year": 2025, "event": "First enterprise AGI deployment"},
        {"year": 2026, "event": "50% of software written by AI"},
        {"year": 2027, "event": "Major productivity leap in white-collar work"},
        {"year": 2028, "event": "Traditional software vendors consolidate"},
        {"year": 2029, "event": "New AI-native competitors dominate"},
        {"year": 2030, "event": "Enterprise software market unrecognizable"}
    ],
    "stakeholder_impacts": {
        "customers": "Expect AI-first solutions, willing to pay premium for automation",
        "competitors": "AI-native startups disrupt incumbents",
        "employees": "Massive reskilling required",
        "investors": "Flight to AI leaders, traditional valuations collapse"
    }
}

Narrative Generation

# Generate narrative
narrative_config = {
    "scenario_name": "AI Explosion",
    "style": "journalist_from_the_future",
    "length": "1500_words",
    "structure": {
        "headline": True,
        "opening_hook": True,
        "timeline_narrative": True,
        "stakeholder_vignettes": True,
        "implications_summary": True
    },
    "persona": {
        "include": True,
        "name": "Sarah Chen",
        "role": "CIO of a mid-size manufacturer",
        "journey": "How her company navigated this world"
    }
}

Consistency Check

# Check narrative consistency
consistency_check = {
    "checks": [
        {
            "type": "causal_logic",
            "elements": ["rapid_ai", "workforce_disruption"],
            "result": "consistent",
            "note": "AI adoption logically leads to job displacement"
        },
        {
            "type": "timeline",
            "elements": ["AGI_2025", "software_dominance_2026"],
            "result": "plausible",
            "note": "12-month gap is tight but possible given premise"
        },
        {
            "type": "contradiction",
            "elements": ["innovation_friendly_regulation", "strict_ai_oversight"],
            "result": "inconsistent",
            "note": "Resolve: clarify regulation is permissive on development, focused on safety"
        }
    ]
}

Comparison Table

# Generate comparison table
comparison_config = {
    "scenarios": ["AI Explosion", "Regulated Innovation", "Steady Progress", "Digital Caution"],
    "dimensions": [
        "Market Size 2030",
        "Number of Major Vendors",
        "AI Penetration Rate",
        "Regulatory Burden",
        "Workforce Impact",
        "Key Success Factors",
        "Strategic Implications"
    ]
}

Input Schema

{
  "scenario_framework": {
    "focus_question": "string",
    "time_horizon": "string",
    "critical_uncertainties": ["object"],
    "scenario_matrix": "object"
  },
  "scenario_elements": {
    "driving_forces": "object",
    "key_events": ["object"],
    "stakeholder_impacts": "object"
  },
  "narrative_config": {
    "style": "string",
    "length": "string",
    "structure": "object",
    "persona": "object"
  }
}

Output Schema

{
  "narrative": {
    "headline": "string",
    "body": "string (markdown)",
    "word_count": "number"
  },
  "persona_story": {
    "name": "string",
    "journey": "string"
  },
  "key_events_timeline": ["object"],
  "implications": {
    "strategic": ["string"],
    "operational": ["string"],
    "capability_gaps": ["string"]
  },
  "comparison_table": "object",
  "consistency_report": "object"
}

Narrative Styles

Best Practices

1. Make scenarios vivid and memorable with specific details
2. Ensure internal consistency within each scenario
3. Make scenarios sufficiently different from each other
4. Balance plausibility with challenge to conventional thinking
5. Include both opportunities and threats
6. Use personas to make abstract futures tangible
7. Connect scenarios to strategic decisions

Scenario Quality Criteria

Integration Points

• Feeds into War Game Orchestrator for competitive scenarios
• Connects with System Dynamics Modeler for quantification
• Supports Scenario Planner agent
• Integrates with Strategic Options Analyst for strategy testing