Offer Analysis

Mass Tort vs Evergreen Offer Dynamics

Mass Tort Characteristics

• Niche, short-term offers with high value
• Disproportional arbitrage - leads are super cheap initially
• Number of claimants is largest at launch - compresses over time
• New to market = largest opportunity window
• CPL naturally rises as claimant pool shrinks
• Conversion rate naturally drops over time
• Call center consistency affects disposition rates
• Revenue comes in 24-48 hours, with drip over 7-14 days

Evergreen Offer Characteristics

• Stable, long-term plays (auto insurance, Medicare, debt settlement)
• More predictable but tighter margins
• Higher competition, more saturated
• Requires sustained creative output to maintain performance
• Better for building consistent revenue base
• Network relationships become critical

Process

Step 1: Review Offer Details

Financial Metrics

• Payout amount and type (CPA, CPL, RevShare)
• Payment terms (Net 7, Net 15, Net 30)
• Payout caps (daily/weekly/monthly)
• Scrub rates (if known)
• Average conversion rate from network (critical for CPL offers)

Flow Analysis

• Traffic type accepted (Social, Native, Search, Email)
• Geo restrictions
• Device restrictions
• Funnel type (Direct link, Pre-sell required, Quiz)
• Disposition timeline - when do you know if leads convert?

Restrictions

• Creative restrictions
• Claim limitations
• Compliance requirements
• Brand bidding rules

Step 2: CPL and Conversion Rate Analysis

The Core Equation (Casto):

Average CPL × Average Conversion Rate = Average CPA
Average CPA vs Average Payout = Your Margin

CPL Benchmarks by Vertical:

Margin Analysis Framework:

• Healthy margin: 30%+ after all costs
• Acceptable margin: 15-30%
• Tight margin: 5-15% (need volume or backend)
• Danger zone: <5% (one bad day kills you)

Key Question: "I live and die by that margin. There's no backend for me." - Casto

Step 3: Assess Market Position

Market Timing Indicators:

• New offers appearing = growing opportunity
• Longtime players still active = sustainable vertical
• Many new entrants = possible saturation
• Declining payouts = maturing market

Competition Analysis:

• Who else is running this?
• Estimated spend in market
• Creative saturation level
• How long has offer been available?
• Are payouts compressing? (sign of maturity)

Market Size Assessment:

• Total addressable market
• Search volume for related terms
• Claimant pool size (for mass tort)
• Seasonality factors

Step 4: Identify Target Avatar

Demographics

• Age range
• Gender
• Income level
• Location

Psychographics

• Pain points (surface level AND deeper emotional drivers)
• Desires/goals
• Buying behavior
• Media consumption

Match Assessment

• Does avatar match your traffic sources?
• Can you reach this audience profitably?
• What bucket does Facebook put this audience in? (CPM pricing)

Step 5: Evaluate Creative Requirements

Content Needs

• Video vs static requirements
• UGC availability
• Stock footage availability
• Compliance-friendly angles

Production Effort

• Simple (existing templates)
• Moderate (new concepts needed)
• Complex (custom production)

Creative Volume Requirements (Based on Spectrum):

Step 6: Network Relationship Assessment

Network Quality Indicators:

• Payment reliability and terms
• Scrub rate transparency
• Real-time reporting availability
• Disposition feedback speed
• Account manager responsiveness

Relationship Building Questions:

• Is this network proven or new to you?
• Do you have leverage for better terms?
• Can you get exclusive offers or payouts?
• Will they work weekend leads? (critical for scaling)

Testing Budget Formulas

Casto's CPL Testing Framework

Minimum Test Spend per Creative Batch:

Minimum Test = Target CPL × 1.5-2x × Number of Ad Sets

Example:

• Target CPL: $20
• Creative concepts: 10 (each in own ad set)
• Minimum test: $20 × 1.5 × 10 = $300/day minimum

When to Pull Winners:

• Spending 1.5-2x target CPL with good margin = potential winner
• Test across 3-5 ad accounts before declaring winner
• Scale budget 20% increments (not aggressive jumps for lead gen)

Jason K's VSL Testing Framework

Initiate Checkout Method:

Test Budget = Target CPA × Number of Ad Sets

Example:

• Target CPA: $100
• Testing 12 avatars: 12 ad sets
• CBO budget: $1,000 with 5% minimum spend per ad set

Winner Criteria:

• A winner doesn't lose more than once in 3 days
• A winner doesn't lose more than twice in 7 days
• "Don't fall in love with an ad" - kill fast, don't hang on

Go/No-Go Decision Framework

GREEN LIGHT - GO if:

• Payout creates 20%+ margin at realistic CPL
• Market is growing or stable (not compressing)
• Avatar matches your existing traffic
• Creative requirements align with your capabilities
• Network has good reputation and payment terms
• You can afford 2-4 weeks of testing losses
• Offer falls on "easier" side of spectrum OR you have resources for hard offers

YELLOW LIGHT - CAUTION if:

• Margins are 10-20% (need volume to matter)
• Market is competitive but not saturated
• Need to develop new creative capabilities
• Network is new to you (start small)
• Offer requires cost caps/bid caps to work
• Disposition timeline is slow (>48 hours)

RED LIGHT - NO-GO if:

• Margins are <10% with no backend
• Market is clearly saturated/declining
• Avatar doesn't match any traffic you can buy
• Creative requirements exceed your budget
• Network has poor reputation
• Claimant pool is nearly exhausted (mass tort)
• Call center/intake quality is unknown or poor

Output Template

## OFFER ANALYSIS: [Offer Name]

### OFFER SNAPSHOT
- Network: [Name]
- Payout: $[Amount] / [Type]
- Flow: [Description]
- Geos: [Countries]
- Vertical: [Category]
- **Spectrum Position:** [Easy/Medium/Hard]
- **Offer Type:** [Mass Tort / Evergreen / Seasonal]

### CPL/CONVERSION ANALYSIS

| Metric | Target | Network Avg | Your Estimate |
|--------|--------|-------------|---------------|
| CPL | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] |
| Conv Rate | [X]% | [X]% | [X]% |
| CPA | $[X] | $[X] | $[X] |
| Payout | $[X] | - | - |
| **Margin** | [X]% | - | [X]% |

**Disposition Timeline:** [24hr / 48hr / 7-14 day drip]

### VIABILITY SCORES (1-10)

| Factor | Score | Notes |
|--------|-------|-------|
| Payout/Margin | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Market Timing | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Competition | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Avatar Fit | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Creative Ease | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Network Quality | X/10 | [Assessment] |
| Spectrum Position | X/10 | [Easy = higher score] |
| **TOTAL** | XX/70 | |

### AVATAR PROFILE
- Who: [Description]
- Pain: [Key pain points]
- Desire: [Goals]
- Where: [How to reach them]
- CPM Bucket: [Expected pricing tier]

### CREATIVE STRATEGY
- Recommended angles: [List]
- Hook types to test: [List based on LeadsIcon framework]
- Production needs: [List]
- Weekly output target: [X creatives]

### TESTING BUDGET

**Phase 1: Initial Test (Week 1-2)**
| Item | Quantity | Cost | Total |
|------|----------|------|-------|
| Creative production | [#] | $[X] | $[X] |
| Ad spend (testing) | [days] | $[X]/day | $[X] |
| **Total Phase 1** | | | $[X] |

**Budget Formula Applied:**
- Target CPL: $[X]
- Test multiplier: [1.5x or 2x based on spectrum]
- Ad sets to test: [X]
- Daily minimum: $[X]

**Scale Readiness:**
- Break-even volume: [Leads/Sales per day]
- Scale budget if margin holds: $[X]/day
- Multiple ad accounts needed at: $[X]/day

### RISKS
1. [Risk 1 - e.g., "Claimant pool shrinking"]
2. [Risk 2 - e.g., "Call center weekend coverage unknown"]
3. [Risk 3 - e.g., "High creative saturation"]

### RECOMMENDATION
**[GO / CAUTION / NO-GO]**

Reasoning: [Explanation referencing spectrum position, margin analysis, and market timing]

### IF GO - NEXT STEPS
1. Secure network relationship and confirm disposition reporting
2. Set up tracking with CPL and conversion rate visibility
3. Produce first creative batch ([X] concepts × [X] variations)
4. Launch ABO testing with concepts in separate ad sets
5. Scale winners to CBO at 1.5-2x target CPL
6. Expand to multiple ad accounts at $[X]/day threshold

Evaluation Quick Reference

Green Flags:

• High payout with good conversion rates
• Large underserved market or new mass tort
• Clear avatar with reachable traffic
• Simple creative requirements (Chad spectrum)
• Good payment terms and disposition speed
• Network will work weekends

Red Flags:

• Extremely tight margins (<10%)
• Saturated market with declining payouts
• Complex compliance requirements
• Limited traffic sources accepted
• Poor network reputation or slow dispositions
• "I might not see reporting until the next day" scenario
• Claimant pool nearly exhausted

Spectrum Considerations:

• Easy offers = broad targeting, creative-driven, scale fast
• Hard offers = cost caps, bid caps, more testing, tighter management

Sources: Meta-CastovsJasonK, LeadsIcon-CreativeFlow, 8 Step Ideation