Extract the best trading candidates based on confidence and edge
Extract today's best bets picks — the actual trading candidates selected by the signal-based filter stack.
/top-picksTop Picks = Best bets picks from signal_best_bets_picks — already filtered through:
These are the picks the system has highest conviction on. Do NOT re-filter by confidence — confidence was proven useless (Session 81).
-- Today's best bets picks (the ACTUAL trading candidates)
SELECT
bb.player_lookup,
bb.recommendation,
ROUND(bb.edge, 1) as edge,
bb.signal_count,
bb.system_id,
bb.pick_angles,
bb.ultra_tier,
bb.signal_rescued,
bb.rescue_signal,
ROUND(p.predicted_points, 1) as predicted,
ROUND(p.current_points_line, 1) as vegas_line
FROM `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.signal_best_bets_picks` bb
LEFT JOIN `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.player_prop_predictions` p
ON bb.player_lookup = p.player_lookup
AND bb.game_date = p.game_date
AND bb.system_id = p.system_id
WHERE bb.game_date = CURRENT_DATE()
ORDER BY bb.edge DESC
-- Best bets picks with player's recent accuracy
WITH player_recent AS (
SELECT
player_lookup,
ROUND(100.0 * COUNTIF(prediction_correct) / COUNT(*), 1) as recent_hit_rate,
COUNT(*) as recent_games
FROM `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.prediction_accuracy`
WHERE game_date >= DATE_SUB(CURRENT_DATE(), INTERVAL 21 DAY)
AND game_date < CURRENT_DATE()
GROUP BY player_lookup
)
SELECT
bb.player_lookup,
bb.recommendation,
ROUND(bb.edge, 1) as edge,
bb.signal_count,
bb.system_id,
bb.pick_angles,
bb.ultra_tier,
COALESCE(r.recent_hit_rate, 0) as player_21d_hr,
COALESCE(r.recent_games, 0) as games_l21
FROM `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.signal_best_bets_picks` bb
LEFT JOIN player_recent r ON bb.player_lookup = r.player_lookup
WHERE bb.game_date = CURRENT_DATE()
ORDER BY bb.edge DESC
-- Best bets summary
SELECT
COUNT(*) as total_picks,
COUNTIF(recommendation = 'OVER') as overs,
COUNTIF(recommendation = 'UNDER') as unders,
ROUND(AVG(edge), 1) as avg_edge,
ROUND(MAX(edge), 1) as max_edge,
ROUND(AVG(signal_count), 1) as avg_signals,
COUNTIF(ultra_tier IS NOT NULL) as ultra_picks
FROM `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.signal_best_bets_picks`
WHERE game_date = CURRENT_DATE()
-- How has the best bets system performed recently?
SELECT
ROUND(100.0 * COUNTIF(pa.prediction_correct) / COUNT(*), 1) as hr_21d,
COUNTIF(pa.prediction_correct) as wins,
COUNT(*) - COUNTIF(pa.prediction_correct) as losses,
COUNT(*) as total,
ROUND(100.0 * COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'OVER' AND pa.prediction_correct) /
NULLIF(COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'OVER'), 0), 1) as over_hr,
COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'OVER') as over_n,
ROUND(100.0 * COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'UNDER' AND pa.prediction_correct) /
NULLIF(COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'UNDER'), 0), 1) as under_hr,
COUNTIF(bb.recommendation = 'UNDER') as under_n
FROM `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.signal_best_bets_picks` bb
JOIN `nba-props-platform.nba_predictions.prediction_accuracy` pa
ON bb.player_lookup = pa.player_lookup
AND bb.game_date = pa.game_date
AND bb.system_id = pa.system_id
AND pa.game_date >= DATE_SUB(CURRENT_DATE(), INTERVAL 21 DAY)
AND pa.game_date < CURRENT_DATE()
WHERE bb.game_date >= DATE_SUB(CURRENT_DATE(), INTERVAL 21 DAY)
AND bb.game_date < CURRENT_DATE()
AND pa.prediction_correct IS NOT NULL
AND pa.is_voided IS NOT TRUE
Today's Best Bets (2026-03-03)
==============================
Found 8 trading candidates
| Player | Rec | Edge | Signals | Model | Ultra | Rescued |
|-----------------|-------|-------|---------|--------------------------|-------|---------|
| lebron-james | OVER | +7.2 | 5 | catboost_v12_noveg_... | v12_edge_6plus | |
| jayson-tatum | UNDER | +5.4 | 4 | catboost_v12_train_... | | |
| devin-booker | OVER | +2.1 | 3 | lgbm_v12_noveg_... | | book_disagreement |
Summary:
Total Picks: 8 (5 OVER / 3 UNDER)
Avg Edge: 5.1 | Max Edge: 7.2
Ultra Picks: 2
21-Day Performance: 62.5% HR (25W-15L)
OVER: 68.0% (17/25) | UNDER: 53.3% (8/15)
/top-picks 5 → Only edge 5+ picks/top-picks over → Only OVER picks/top-picks under → Only UNDER picks/top-picks ultra → Only ultra-tier picks/top-picks rescued → Only signal-rescued pickssignal_rescued=TRUE) — these bypassed edge floor via a validated high-HR signalrescue_signal value (e.g., book_disagreement, signal_stacking) so the user knows WHY the pick was rescued