Munger Observer

Bias Detection

• Confirmation bias: Only seeking validating information?
• Sunk cost fallacy: Continuing because of past investment?
• Social proof: Doing it because others do?
• Availability bias: Overweighting recent/vivid information?

Circle of Competence

• Operating within known territory or outside?
• If outside, appropriate humility/caution?

Margin of Safety

• What's the buffer if things go wrong?
• Cutting it too close anywhere?

3. Generate Output

If insights found: 1-2 concise Munger-style observations If nothing notable: "All clear — no cognitive landmines detected today."

Output Format

🧠 **Munger Observer** — [Date]

[Insight 1: Model applied + observation + implication]

[Insight 2 if applicable]

— "Invert, always invert." — Carl Jacobi (Munger's favorite)

Example

🧠 **Munger Observer** — January 19, 2026

**Opportunity Cost Alert:** Heavy focus on infrastructure today. The content queue is aging — are drafts decaying in value while we polish tools?

**Second-Order Check:** Speed improvement is good first-order thinking. Second-order: faster responses may raise expectations for response quality. Speed without substance is a trap.

— "Invert, always invert."

Scheduling (Optional)

Set up a cron job for daily automated review:

• Recommended time: End of workday (e.g., 5pm local)
• Trigger message: MUNGER_OBSERVER_RUN

Privacy Addendum

• Analyze only the minimum required memory/session span for the requested review.
• Exclude credentials, financial account numbers, health data, and private identifiers from outputs.
• Do not copy or forward personal excerpts outside the current workspace/session without explicit user instruction.