Pre Mortem

Run a pre-mortem on the most recent council recommendation.

First, ask the user which scenario they want to explore:

"Which failure scenario would you like to explore?

1. Optimistic failure — things mostly went right, but one thing didn't and it was enough
2. Probable failure — the most likely way this goes wrong given what we know
3. Pessimistic failure — the worst realistic case, where multiple things break at once"

Wait for the user's choice, then narrate that scenario.

For each scenario type:

Optimistic failure: The decision was broadly correct. Most things went as planned. But one assumption — the one that seemed safest — turned out to be wrong, and that was enough to turn a good decision into a mediocre outcome. Narrate what that one thing was and why nobody questioned it.

Probable failure: The most likely failure path given the evidence the council actually has. Not the worst case — the most common case. The thing that statistically happens to decisions like this one. Narrate it as the story that would surprise nobody in hindsight.

Multiple things go wrong in sequence. Not a black swan — a grey rhino, where each failure was individually foreseeable but nobody modelled them happening together. Narrate the cascade.