Market Intel

Adjacent Competitors

Different solution to the same problem.

• Products that solve the same problem a different way
• Why customers might choose adjacent solution over direct solution
• Pricing / positioning
• Switching costs to your idea

DIY Alternatives

What people cobble together today (this is often the strongest competitor).

• Tools / spreadsheets / manual processes
• Workflow required to MacGyver a solution
• Cost in time and money
• Pain points of DIY

Enterprise / Incumbent Solutions

Large players with adjacent products who could extend into this space.

• Which incumbents have this capability or could build it?
• Why haven't they prioritized it?
• What would trigger them to move?

For each competitor, document:

• Name, type (direct/adjacent/DIY/incumbent)
• Funding/size (if known)
• Pricing
• Key strengths
• Key weaknesses / customer sentiment
• Threat level to your idea (high/medium/low)

3. Analyze The Graveyard

Companies that tried this and died.

• Search for startups, products, or companies that attempted to solve this problem
• Document: name, when founded, when it died, why it failed
• Was it: ran out of money? bad timing? wrong market? no demand? acquihire? pivoted?
• Extract lessons for this idea specifically

Produce:

• List of graveyard companies with death reason
• Common patterns in failures
• Specific risks this idea should avoid

4. Honest Market Sizing

NO "if we get 1% of a trillion dollar market" nonsense.

TAM: Total Addressable market

• Methodology: (# of potential customers) × (average revenue per customer)
• OR: industry reports on total spending on this problem
• Be specific about geography and time period
• Document your assumptions

SAM: Serviceable Addressable Market

• Realistic slice of TAM that you can actually reach
• Consider: geography, industry vertical, company size, buying power
• Example: If TAM is global, SAM might be "US mid-market SaaS companies"
• Usually 5–20% of TAM

SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market

• What you could realistically capture in Year 1–2
• Based on: go-to-market strategy, sales capacity, market maturity
• Usually 1–5% of SAM
• Be conservative

Produce:

• TAM with methodology and key assumptions
• SAM with target segment definition
• SOM with justification
• Market growth rate (if applicable)

5. Pricing Intelligence

Research and analyze pricing across the competitive landscape.

• What do direct competitors charge?
• What do adjacent solutions charge?
• What does the status quo cost (in time and money)?
• Are there price-sensitive or price-insensitive segments?

Pricing Power Signal:

• Is the problem painful enough that customers will pay?
• Or is it nice-to-have (low willingness to pay)?
• What price point signals value without being prohibitive?

Produce:

• Competitive pricing matrix (product, pricing model, price point)
• Status quo cost analysis
• Pricing power assessment (high/medium/low)
• Recommended pricing model for your idea

6. Regulatory & Legal Landscape

Are there barriers, compliance, or risk factors?

• Regulatory barriers to entry? (licensing, certification, government approval)
• Data privacy implications? (GDPR, CCPA, healthcare data, payment processing)
• Industry-specific compliance? (financial services, healthcare, legal)
• Liability exposure?
• Intellectual property landscape? (patents, trademarks)

Produce:

• Regulatory risks (high/medium/low)
• Compliance requirements
• Data privacy considerations
• Strategic implications (is regulation a moat or a barrier?)

7. Opportunity Gaps

Find the white space in the competitive landscape.

• What are competitors weak at? (based on customer reviews, job posts, feature gaps)
• What do customers complain about in reviews / forums / Reddit?
• What's the underserved segment? (a customer type that competitors ignore)
• What workflow gaps exist? (where does the status quo still beat existing solutions)
• What problems do competitors' solutions CREATE?

Research sources:

• Product review sites (G2, Capterra, Trustpilot)
• Community forums / Reddit
• Job postings (reveals roadmap / where competitors are focused)
• Twitter / LinkedIn complaints
• Customer interviews (if possible)

Produce:

• Explicit gaps where competitors are weak
• Customer complaints (direct quotes from reviews/forums)
• Underserved segments
• Workflow opportunities

8. Produce MARKET-INTEL.md

Compile all research into a structured market intelligence report:

# Market Intelligence Report

## Executive Summary
[1 paragraph: market verdict + key insight]

## Competitive Landscape

### Competitive Matrix
| Name | Type | Funding | Size | Pricing | Key Strengths | Key Weaknesses | Threat |
|------|------|---------|------|---------|---------------|-----------------|--------|
| [Competitor A] | Direct | [$XM] | [Size] | [Price] | [Strengths] | [Weaknesses] | High/Med/Low |
| [Competitor B] | Adjacent | [$XM] | [Size] | [Price] | [Strengths] | [Weaknesses] | High/Med/Low |

### Direct Competitors
- [Competitor name]: [1-2 sentence assessment]
  - Threat level: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
  - Why we're different:

### Adjacent Competitors
- [Competitor name]: [1-2 sentence assessment]
  - Threat level: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]

### DIY Alternatives (Current Status Quo)
- Workflow: [How people solve this today]
- Time cost: [Hours/week or hours/year]
- Money cost: [If any]
- Pain points: [Why DIY sucks]

### Incumbent Threats
- [Incumbent name]: [Could they build this?]
  - Likelihood of entry: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]
  - Timeline to competitive product: [Months/years]

---

## The Graveyard

[Companies that tried and failed]

| Company | Founded | Died | Reason | Lesson for Us |
|---------|---------|------|--------|---------------|
| [Company A] | [Year] | [Year] | [Why] | [Lesson] |

### Patterns in Failures
- [Common pattern 1]
- [Common pattern 2]

### Specific Risks to Avoid
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]

---

## Market Sizing

### TAM: Total Addressable Market
- **Size:** [$X billion / # of customers]
- **Methodology:** [How calculated]
- **Geography:** [Region(s)]
- **Time period:** [Year]
- **Key assumptions:** [What had to be true]
- **Data source:** [Where this came from]

### SAM: Serviceable Addressable Market
- **Size:** [$X billion / # of customers]
- **Target segment:** [Who we can actually reach]
- **Rationale:** [Why this subset]
- **% of TAM:** [X%]

### SOM: Serviceable Obtainable Market
- **Year 1–2 target:** [$X / # of customers]
- **Go-to-market assumption:** [How we'll acquire]
- **% of SAM:** [X%]
- **Conservative?** [Yes, because...]

### Market Growth
- **CAGR:** [X% / year]
- **Trend:** [Growing / Flat / Declining]
- **Driver:** [What's changing]

---

## Pricing Intelligence

### Competitive Pricing
| Product | Model | Price Point | Customer Segment |
|---------|-------|-------------|------------------|
| [Competitor A] | [SaaS/License/etc] | [$X/user/month] | [Segment] |
| [Competitor B] | [Model] | [Price] | [Segment] |

### Status Quo Cost Analysis
- **Time cost:** [Hours/week × [hourly cost] = $X/week]
- **Tool cost:** [$X/month in current tools]
- **Total cost to customer:** [$X/year]
- **Willingness to pay:** [Our price ceiling]

### Pricing Power Signal
- **Severity:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW willingness to pay]
- **Evidence:** [Why customers will or won't pay]
- **Recommended pricing model:** [SaaS/License/Freemium/etc]
- **Recommended price point:** [$X/user/month or equivalent]

---

## Regulatory & Legal Landscape

### Regulatory Barriers
- **Industry:** [If any specific regulation applies]
- **Barriers:** [Licensing, approval, certification, etc.]
- **Compliance cost:** [$X or "low"]
- **Risk level:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW]

### Data Privacy & Security
- **Data handled:** [What data the product touches]
- **Regulations:** [GDPR, CCPA, HIPAA, etc.]
- **Implications:** [What must be done]
- **Competitive advantage?** [Is compliance a moat?]

### Intellectual Property
- **Patent landscape:** [Are there blocking patents?]
- **Trademark risks:** [Existing trademarks in this space?]
- **Trade secret opportunities:** [Can we own something?]

---

## Opportunity Gaps

### Where Competitors Are Weak
- [Gap 1]: [Evidence from reviews/research]
- [Gap 2]: [Evidence]

### Customer Complaints (Direct Quotes)
- Competitor A: "[Customer complaint]" — [source]
- Competitor B: "[Customer complaint]" — [source]

### Underserved Segments
- [Segment name]: [Why competitors ignore them]
- [Segment name]: [Why competitors ignore them]

### Workflow Opportunities
- [Specific workflow gap]: [How we could own this]

### Problems Competitors CREATE
- [Competitor A creates problem X]
- [Competitor B creates problem Y]

---

## Market Verdict

**Market Category:** [Choose one]
- **Blue Ocean:** Uncontested market space, little direct competition
- **Emerging:** Early stage, growing, multiple small players
- **Crowded:** Established market, many competitors, differentiation required
- **Dominated:** One or two major players with strong moats
- **Graveyard:** Multiple failed attempts, structural challenges

**Rationale:** [1–2 sentences explaining verdict]

---

## Strategic Recommendations

### High-Confidence Opportunities
- [Opportunity 1]: [Why we can win here]
- [Opportunity 2]: [Why we can win here]

### Medium-Risk Assumptions to Validate
- [Assumption 1]: [How to test]
- [Assumption 2]: [How to test]

### Market Entry Strategy
1. [First beachhead segment]
2. [How to win against DIY]
3. [How to defend against incumbents]
4. [Path to SAM]

### Competitive Advantages to Emphasize
- [Advantage 1]
- [Advantage 2]

### Risks to Mitigate
- [Risk 1]: [Mitigation]
- [Risk 2]: [Mitigation]

---

## Key Questions for Founder

- [Validation question 1]
- [Validation question 2]
- [Validation question 3]

---

## Sources & Research Quality

- **Recency:** [When research was conducted]
- **Confidence level:** [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW based on data quality]
- **Data sources used:**
  - [Source 1]
  - [Source 2]
  - [Source 3]

9. Update ACCELERATOR-STATE.md

After market intel is complete:

• Mark Phase 2 as complete
• Note the market verdict
• Set checkpoint for next phase (if applicable)
• Flag any high-risk findings that need founder response

Tone & Approach

• Adversarial but constructive. Find the truth. Find the opportunity IN that truth.
• No cheerleading. If the market is crowded, say so. If competitors own it, say so.
• But find the gaps. Crowded markets still have white space.
• Quantify everything. "Many competitors" → name them and count them.
• Source your claims. Every competitive claim should have a source.
• Be honest about your limits. If you can't find pricing for a competitor, say so.

Success Criteria

A quality market intel report should have:

• ✓ 5+ identified competitors (direct or adjacent)
• ✓ Specific, named graveyard companies with failure reasons
• ✓ Quantified market sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM with methodology)
• ✓ Pricing intelligence across competitive landscape
• ✓ Identified regulatory/legal landscape (or "none" if truly none)
• ✓ 3+ concrete opportunity gaps where this idea can win
• ✓ Clear market verdict (Blue Ocean / Emerging / Crowded / Dominated / Graveyard)
• ✓ Specific, actionable strategic recommendations
• ✓ All claims sourced or clearly marked as assumption

Research Tips

• Use WebSearch strategically. Each search should answer a specific question.
• Check review sites first. G2, Capterra, Trustpilot reveal customer sentiment fast.
• Read job postings. Company job posts reveal roadmap, hiring direction, and what they're focused on.
• Follow the money. Crunchbase, PitchBook, AngelList for funding and traction signals.
• Check the graveyard. Search "[problem] startup failed" or "[problem] company shutdown."
• Get granular on pricing. Don't just say "it costs money" — find exact price points.
• Dig into TAM methodology. Generic "1% of $X trillion" doesn't cut it — show your work.