Market Macro

DB-first: do not require data/agent-cache/daily. If you need fresh numbers, run ./scripts/fetch-market-data.sh (writes to legacy archive paths only) or use MCP sources. Web fetch: use defuddle parse <url> --md instead of WebFetch for any news article, Fed speech transcript, central bank statement, or economic release page. Not for API endpoints, .json, or .md files.

Research Steps

1. Overnight & Pre-Market Summary

• What happened globally while the user's market was closed?
• Any major data, political events, central bank actions, or geopolitical developments overnight?
• How are US equity futures positioned heading into the open?

2. Economic Calendar — Today

Search for today's scheduled economic releases:

• US: CPI, PPI, PCE, NFP, ISM, GDP, retail sales, jobless claims, housing data — whichever are due today
• Eurozone / UK / Japan / China: any major prints
• Time of release and consensus estimate vs. prior
• If already released: actual vs. estimate and immediate market reaction

3. Economic Calendar — This Week

• Key data releases scheduled for the rest of the week
• Fed / ECB / BOJ / BOE meetings or speeches
• Treasury auction schedule (can move yields)
• Any major geopolitical events or elections

4. Central Bank Watch

• Fed: recent rhetoric, any speeches today, meeting proximity
• ECB: rate path, recent guidance
• BOJ: yen policy, any intervention risk
• BOE: UK-specific macro stress
• PBoC: China stimulus signals

5. Inflation Breakevens & Real Rates

• 5Y TIPS breakeven (market-implied inflation expectation): direction vs prior week
• 10Y TIPS breakeven: is inflation expectation rising or falling?
• 10Y real yield (nominal 10Y minus breakeven): positive = headwind for gold/growth; negative = tailwind
• Is the market pricing more or less inflation than the Fed expects?

6. Macro Regime Assessment

Classify the current macro regime using all available data including upstream alternative data:

• Growth: Expanding / Slowing / Contracting
• Inflation: Hot / Cooling / Cold
• Policy: Tightening / Neutral / Easing
• Risk appetite: Risk-on / Risk-off / Mixed

Also assess: Recession probability (0-100%) — based on PMI, yield curve inversion duration, credit spreads Also assess: Stagflation risk — inflation + contraction is the worst-case regime

This 4-factor framework + recession probability + stagflation risk shape every downstream segment bias.

7. Yield Curve Recession Signal

• 2s10s spread: current inversion depth and duration
• 3M10Y spread: more historically reliable recession predictor
• Historical context: how long has the curve been inverted? (12-18 months post-inversion = typical recession lag)
• Is the curve re-steepening (bull or bear steepener)? Bull steepening = Fed cutting = bad growth signal.

8. Global Fiscal Policy Scan

• US federal deficit trajectory: any Congressional Budget Office update
• Any G7 government issuing unusual amounts of debt? (supply pressure on yields)
• Japan's JGB yield curve control: any BOJ policy adjustment affecting global rates?
• UK Gilts: any fiscal credibility concerns?

9. Geopolitical & Structural Risks

• Any active geopolitical risks impacting markets (conflict, sanctions, trade policy, elections)?
• Any structural market risks (liquidity concerns, regulatory changes, systemic stress)?
• Escalation probability assessment for active conflicts (Iran, Taiwan, Russia/Ukraine)

Output Format

### 🌍 MACRO
**Regime**: Growth: [X] | Inflation: [X] | Policy: [X] | Risk appetite: [X]

**Overnight**: [Key overnight developments in 2-3 sentences]

**Today's Data**: [Releases, consensus vs actual if available, market reaction]

**This Week**: [Upcoming key events and dates]

**Central Banks**: [Fed stance | ECB | BOJ | Notable divergences]

**Geopolitical**: [Active risks, if any]

**Macro Implication**: [How the current regime should bias positioning across asset classes]