Run global macro analysis as part of the daily digest. Covers economic data, central bank policy, geopolitics, and the cross-asset macro regime. In the orchestrator pipeline, run as Phase 3 after alternative data and institutional intelligence phases.
config/watchlist.md (macro section)config/preferences.mdRead before analysis — these files contain systematic, source-of-truth numbers fetched via free public APIs before the pipeline started. Use them for all numerical lookups.
DB-first: read the latest macro levels from Supabase (daily_snapshots.market_data / documents.payload). Prefer embedded market_data / snapshot fields for yield curve (1M–30Y), (2s10s, 3m10y), , , , , and — do not web-browse for numbers that already exist there.
Web search for (not in the data files):
mcp_fred_fred_series_observations with series T10YIE (10Y breakeven), T5YIE (5Y breakeven), DFII10 (10Y TIPS real yield)mcp_fred_*: CPIAUCSL (CPI), PCEPI (PCE), UNRATE, GDP, T10Y2Y (2s10s spread), T10Y3M (3m10y spread), VIXCLSDB-first: do not require
data/agent-cache/daily. If you need fresh numbers, run./scripts/fetch-market-data.sh(writes to legacy archive paths only) or use MCP sources. Web fetch: usedefuddle parse <url> --mdinstead of WebFetch for any news article, Fed speech transcript, central bank statement, or economic release page. Not for API endpoints,.json, or.mdfiles.
Search for today's scheduled economic releases:
Classify the current macro regime using all available data including upstream alternative data:
Also assess: Recession probability (0-100%) — based on PMI, yield curve inversion duration, credit spreads Also assess: Stagflation risk — inflation + contraction is the worst-case regime
This 4-factor framework + recession probability + stagflation risk shape every downstream segment bias.
### 🌍 MACRO
**Regime**: Growth: [X] | Inflation: [X] | Policy: [X] | Risk appetite: [X]
**Overnight**: [Key overnight developments in 2-3 sentences]
**Today's Data**: [Releases, consensus vs actual if available, market reaction]
**This Week**: [Upcoming key events and dates]
**Central Banks**: [Fed stance | ECB | BOJ | Notable divergences]
**Geopolitical**: [Active risks, if any]
**Macro Implication**: [How the current regime should bias positioning across asset classes]