Statistical demand forecasting skill using multiple algorithms with automatic model selection and accuracy tracking
The Demand Forecasting Engine provides comprehensive statistical and machine learning-based demand forecasting capabilities. It supports multiple forecasting algorithms with automatic model selection, ensemble averaging, and continuous accuracy tracking to generate reliable demand predictions for supply chain planning.
forecast_request:
sku_ids: array[string] # SKUs to forecast
historical_data: object # Historical demand data
forecast_horizon: integer # Periods to forecast
granularity: string # daily, weekly, monthly
causal_factors: # Optional external factors
promotions: array
seasonality: object
trends: object
models_to_evaluate: array # Optional specific models
confidence_level: float # e.g., 0.95 for 95% CI
forecast_output:
forecasts: array
- sku_id: string
predictions: array[object]
confidence_intervals: object
selected_model: string
accuracy_metrics: object
model_comparison: object
recommendations: array
Input: Historical sales data for SKU-12345, 12-month forecast horizon
Process: Evaluate ARIMA, Holt-Winters, XGBoost models
Output: Monthly forecasts with confidence intervals and best model selection
Input: Base demand + planned promotions calendar
Process: Adjust baseline with promotional lift factors
Output: Promotion-adjusted forecast with uplift quantification
Input: Complex demand pattern with multiple seasonalities
Process: Run multiple models and create weighted ensemble
Output: Ensemble forecast with individual model contributions