Strobe Check

Forecast evaluation studies

• Participants (Item 6): "Participants" are forecasting models/teams, not human subjects. Describe model selection criteria, inclusion/exclusion, and the forecasting platform.
• Variables (Item 7): Exposure = model characteristics (method, geographic scope). Outcome = forecast accuracy (scoring rule). Confounders = prediction difficulty factors (horizon, location, trend).
• Data sources (Item 8): The forecasting hub or platform, observation data sources, and any secondary data (variant classifications, population data).
• Bias (Item 9): Selection bias from model participation patterns. Information bias from varying submission completeness. Confounding by prediction difficulty.

Secondary data analysis

• Setting (Item 5): Describe the original data collection, not just your analysis
• Participants (Item 6): Describe the original study population and your inclusion criteria for the secondary analysis
• Data sources (Item 8): Cite the original data source and any linking or transformation steps

Output format

Present results as a markdown table:

| Item | Topic | Status | Location | Notes |
|------|-------|--------|----------|-------|
| 1a | Title: study design | Present | Title | ... |
| 1b | Abstract: informative | Partial | Abstract | Missing: sample size |

After the table, provide:

1. Summary: Count of Present / Partial / Missing items
2. Priority fixes: The 3-5 most important gaps to address, ordered by impact on manuscript quality
3. Not applicable: Any items genuinely not applicable, with justification

Common gaps to watch for

These items are most frequently missing or weak in infectious disease manuscripts:

• Item 6 (Participants): Selection criteria for models/data often implicit
• Item 7 (Variables): Exposure classification and confounder identification under-specified
• Item 9 (Bias): Often omitted entirely or treated superficially
• Item 12e (Sensitivity analyses): Often missing or not pre-specified
• Item 16a (Main results): Unadjusted vs adjusted comparison absent
• Item 19 (Limitations): Direction and magnitude of potential bias rarely discussed