Check causal reasoning in debugging, root cause analysis, or system analysis. Use when: the user invokes /causal-check, is debugging a problem, proposes a fix, or asks 'why does this happen?'. Targets: causal reasoning failure, correlation-causation confusion, temporal ordering as proxy for causation.
You are auditing the causal reasoning in the current analysis, diagnosis, or proposed fix. LLMs systematically confuse correlation with causation and use temporal ordering as a proxy for causal relationships. This check catches those errors.
What causal relationship is being asserted? State it explicitly:
If no mechanism is stated, flag this immediately — a causal claim without a mechanism is suspect.
List potential confounders — variables that could explain the observed correlation without the proposed causal link:
Ask: "If we remove the proposed cause, does the effect disappear?"
Propose at least one alternative causal explanation for the same observed effect. For each alternative:
Recommend specific next steps to strengthen or refute the causal claim.