Finance Core Analysis

Use web search, browser, finance tools, or available MCP tools to:

• Re-check major market prices, yields, exchange rates, commodities, and volatility indicators
• Verify policy statements, macro data, earnings data, and geopolitical facts
• Update stale numbers from the stage-1 brief when newer reliable data exists
• Add only source-verifiable data

Use source hierarchy:

• Primary: official releases, central banks, exchanges, regulators, company filings, Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ
• Chinese reliable sources: 财新, 第一财经, 财经, 21世纪经济报道, 经济观察报
• Secondary sources require backtracking to original data

Core model

Explain market behavior through these variables:

• Liquidity
• Interest rates
• Risk appetite
• Capital flows
• Policy direction
• Balance-sheet pressure
• Incentive constraints

Use first-principles reasoning:

事件 → 约束变化 → 资金行为 → 定价结果 → 风险信号

Analysis rules

• Separate confirmed facts from interpretation
• Reuse source-backed numbers from daily-finance
• Add new data only when it is necessary and source-verifiable
• Mark uncertainty clearly
• Write as a serious publishable 公众号 deep-analysis article; save the strongest viral packaging for finance-explosive-article
• Do not give explicit buy/sell recommendations

Validation checklist

Before final output, check:

• Data correctness: dates, units, directions, actual vs expected, intraday vs close
• Source consistency: important claims have reliable sources
• Logic integrity: each conclusion follows from a mechanism, not from mood words
• Causal chain: event, constraint, capital behavior, pricing result, risk signal
• Counter-case: include what would make the judgment wrong
• Publication readiness: title, subheadings, short paragraphs, clear conclusion

Required structure

1. Title

• Use a clear 公众号-style title
• Prefer tension and mechanism over clickbait

2. Executive judgment

• State the single most important market judgment
• Explain what changed today

3. Fact base

• Summarize the 3-5 key facts inherited from daily-finance
• Preserve important numbers and source labels
• Add newly verified external data when necessary

4. Mechanism analysis

Analyze through 3-5 lenses as relevant:

• Liquidity
• Interest rates
• Risk appetite
• Capital flows
• Policy
• Balance sheets

For each lens, explain:

• What changed
• Why it matters
• How it transmits into asset prices

5. Core contradiction

Identify the main tension, for example:

• Growth vs inflation
• Policy easing vs currency pressure
• Risk appetite vs earnings pressure
• Liquidity repair vs balance-sheet contraction

6. Scenario deduction

Provide:

• Base case
• Alternative case
• Falsification signal

7. Key variables to watch

List 3-6 observable indicators for the next update.

8. Non-advisory implication

Explain directional exposure and risk, not ticker calls.

9. Sources

List inherited sources and any new verified sources.

10. Disclaimer

本文仅供参考，不构成投资建议。

File output

If environment allows:

Save to:

markdown/finance-core-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md

Rules:

• Use the same report date as the input daily-finance file
• Create directory if missing
• Use UTF-8 encoding
• Output a complete publishable markdown article, not notes
• If write fails → fallback to chat output

Writing style

• Use 公众号-readable structure: strong title, short paragraphs, numbered sections
• Keep the tone sharp but rational
• Explain mechanisms in plain Chinese
• Use contrast where helpful: "不是A，而是B"
• Avoid empty emotional phrases and unexplained jargon

Goal

Produce a reusable deep-analysis document that answers:

• What changed
• Why it changed
• What mechanism connects facts to asset pricing
• What would prove the analysis wrong