Judge Long Distance Military Campaign

• Weigh potential gains against high risks
• Consider alternatives

Warning Signs

• Informants offering to betray their own state may be unreliable
• Long supply lines through multiple states create vulnerabilities
• Overconfidence in secrecy often leads to disaster

Expected Outcomes

• Avoided catastrophic defeats from overextended campaigns
• Better allocation of military resources
• Preserved forces for more achievable objectives

Validation

• Verify that intelligence sources were evaluated for reliability and potential double-dealing before committing forces
• Confirm that experienced military advisors were consulted and their objections formally considered
• Check that contingency plans with alternative objectives exist in case the primary target is forewarned