Monte Carlo simulations for exit scenarios, return distributions
The Scenario Modeler skill provides advanced scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulations for venture capital return modeling. It enables probabilistic analysis of exit outcomes and return distributions to inform investment decisions and portfolio construction.
Input: Company data, exit assumptions
Process: Build scenarios, assign probabilities
Output: Scenario matrix, expected value
Input: Base assumptions, parameter distributions
Process: Run simulation iterations
Output: Return distribution, percentile analysis
Input: Base case, key drivers
Process: Calculate driver sensitivities
Output: Sensitivity analysis, tornado chart
Input: Portfolio of investments, scenarios
Process: Aggregate portfolio outcomes
Output: Portfolio return distribution
| Scenario | Probability Range | Typical Multiple |
|---|---|---|
| Home Run | 5-15% | 10x+ |
| Strong Exit | 15-25% | 3-10x |
| Moderate Exit | 20-30% | 1-3x |
| Flat/Write-off | 30-50% | 0-1x |
| Parameter | Distribution Type |
|---|---|
| Exit Multiple | Log-normal |
| Exit Timing | Normal/Triangular |
| Revenue Growth | Normal |
| Market Multiple | Log-normal |
| Dilution | Triangular |