Impact Estimation

• Direct trace linking cause to effect
• Mechanism is well understood
• Similar fixes have proven impact
• Evidence is unambiguous

Medium Confidence (70-89%):

• Logical connection exists
• Mechanism is plausible
• Some uncertainty in scope
• Evidence supports but doesn't prove

Low Confidence (<70%):

• Speculative benefit
• Mechanism unclear
• Limited evidence
• Many assumptions required

Impact Estimation Format

Per-Item Impact

## Impact Analysis

### Item: {ID}

**Current state:** X%
**With fix:** Y%
**Estimated lift:** +Z points

**Confidence:** {High/Medium/Low}

**Reasoning:**
{Why this estimate is credible}

**Evidence:**
- {Evidence point 1}
- {Evidence point 2}

Aggregate Impact

## Aggregate Impact Summary

| Improvement | Items | Avg Lift | Total Points | Confidence |
|-------------|-------|----------|--------------|------------|
| {Fix 1} | N | +X | +N×X | High |
| {Fix 2} | N | +Y | +N×Y | Medium |
| {Fix 3} | N | +Z | +N×Z | Low |

**Total estimated improvement:** +{sum} points
**Weighted by confidence:** +{adjusted} points

Impact Table Format

## Impact Analysis: {Opportunity}

| Item | Current | With Fix | Lift | Confidence |
|------|---------|----------|------|------------|
| {ID1} | 45% | 75% | +30 | High |
| {ID2} | 60% | 80% | +20 | Medium |
| {ID3} | 55% | 70% | +15 | Low |

**Summary:**
- Total items: 3
- Average lift: +21.7 points
- Confidence-weighted lift: +18.5 points

Estimation Methods

Direct Evidence Method

When you have clear causal links:

### Estimation Method: Direct Evidence

**Applicable when:**
- Fix addresses root cause directly
- Similar fixes have known outcomes
- Trace shows clear mechanism

**Process:**
1. Identify items with this root cause
2. Calculate current score
3. Estimate score if root cause removed
4. Assign High confidence

Comparative Method

When you can compare similar cases:

### Estimation Method: Comparative

**Applicable when:**
- Similar items have different outcomes
- Difference attributable to specific factor
- Pattern is consistent

**Process:**
1. Find similar items with/without factor
2. Calculate average scores for each group
3. Difference = estimated impact
4. Assign Medium confidence

Extrapolation Method

When direct evidence is limited:

### Estimation Method: Extrapolation

**Applicable when:**
- Limited direct evidence
- Logical mechanism exists
- Must estimate from principles

**Process:**
1. Identify affected items
2. Estimate mechanism impact
3. Apply conservative estimate
4. Assign Low confidence

Priority Scoring

Priority Formula

Priority = (Items Affected × Quality Improvement) / (Effort × Risk)

Factor Definitions

Priority Tiers

Priority Table

## Priority Analysis

| Opportunity | Items | Lift | Effort | Risk | Score | Priority |
|-------------|-------|------|--------|------|-------|----------|
| {Opp 1} | 15 | +20 | 2 | 1 | 150 | P1 |
| {Opp 2} | 10 | +15 | 3 | 2 | 25 | P2 |
| {Opp 3} | 5 | +10 | 4 | 2 | 6 | P3 |

ROI Analysis

Simple ROI

## ROI Analysis

### Investment
- Development: {hours/cost}
- Testing: {hours/cost}
- Deployment: {hours/cost}
- **Total:** {total}

### Return
- Items improved: N
- Average lift: +X points
- Total improvement: +N×X points

### ROI
- Improvement per unit effort: {points/hour}
- Payback: {timeframe}

Effort/Impact Matrix

         High Impact
              │
    Quick Wins│ Major Projects
    (Do first)│ (Plan carefully)
              │
──────────────┼──────────────
              │
    Fill-ins  │ Reconsider
    (If time) │ (Maybe don't)
              │
         Low Impact

        Low Effort ──> High Effort

Estimation Guidelines

Be Conservative

• Use lower bound of confidence range
• Round down, not up
• Prefer underestimate to overestimate

Document Assumptions

**Assumptions:**
1. {Assumption 1}
2. {Assumption 2}

**If assumption invalid:**
- Impact could be: {range}

Show Your Work

**Calculation:**
- Current score: 45%
- Missing 3 key observations worth ~10 points each
- Fix addresses 2 of 3 observations
- Expected improvement: +20 points (2 × 10)
- Confidence: Medium (mechanism clear, but observation value estimated)

Validation Checklist

Before finalizing estimates:

• Confidence levels have clear criteria
• Each estimate has documented reasoning
• Assumptions are explicit
• Priority formula is defined
• Conservative approach used
• Aggregate impact calculated

Additional Resources

For impact estimation patterns:

• ${CLAUDE_PLUGIN_ROOT}/references/playbook-pattern.md - Section 4.8