Ar Claim Builder

Process

Step 1: Review Evidence Base

Read the evidence index and all evidence units. Understand:

• What evidence is available for each sub-question
• Where contradictions exist
• Which themes have strong vs. weak evidence coverage

Step 2: Generate Claim Nodes

For each sub-question and each major theme, propose ClaimNode objects:

1. Generate a claim ID: .venv/bin/python3 utils/schemas.py id cl

2. Populate the ClaimNode fields:

   • claim_id: the generated ID
   • claim_text: a clear, specific claim statement
   • claim_type: descriptive / causal / interpretive / comparative / normative
   • section_target: which paper section this claim belongs in (intro / related_work / methods / findings / discussion / limitations / conclusion)
   • support_evidence_ids: evidence units that support this claim
   • opposing_evidence_ids: evidence units that contradict or weaken this claim
   • status: draft / weakly_supported / supported / contested
   • hedge_level: high / medium / low
   • reviewer_flags: any concerns about this claim

Step 3: Assign Claim Status

For each claim:

• supported: 3+ supporting evidence units, no strong opposing evidence
• weakly_supported: 1-2 supporting evidence units, or significant caveats
• contested: has both supporting AND opposing evidence
• draft: insufficient evidence to assess

Step 4: Assign Hedge Levels

• low (strong language: "demonstrates", "establishes"): only for claims with 3+ high-confidence supporting evidence and no opposing evidence
• medium (moderate: "suggests", "indicates"): for claims with adequate support but some uncertainty
• high (cautious: "may", "appears to", "it is possible that"): for weakly supported or contested claims

Step 5: Detect Overclaims

Flag any claim where:

• The claim_type is "causal" but the evidence is only correlational
• The claim makes a universal statement but the evidence covers only specific cases
• The claim goes beyond what the evidence directly supports
• The hedge_level is too low for the available evidence

For each overclaim, add a reviewer_flag explaining the concern.

Step 6: Build Argument Tree

Construct a hierarchical argument structure:

1. Main thesis: the overarching argument of the paper (derived from the research question)
2. Sub-claims: claims that support the main thesis, organised by sub-question
3. Supporting claims: lower-level claims that provide evidence for sub-claims

Map parent-child relationships between claims.

Step 7: Identify Debate Needs

If any claim is contested with strong evidence on both sides, or if rival explanations exist for key findings, flag for debate:

• Record debate_needed: true
• Specify which claims need debate and the debate_type (rival_explanations or claim_adjudication)

Step 8: Write Claim Files

Write each claim to {workspace}/analysis/claims/cl-{id}.json.

Step 9: Write Argument Tree

Write {workspace}/analysis/claims/argument_tree.json:

{
  "thesis": "The main argument of the paper",
  "claim_ids": ["cl-xxx", "cl-yyy"],
  "sub_claim_map": {
    "cl-xxx": ["cl-aaa", "cl-bbb"],
    "cl-yyy": ["cl-ccc"]
  },
  "contested_claims": ["cl-zzz"],
  "weak_claims": ["cl-www"],
  "debate_needed": false,
  "debate_claims": []
}

Step 10: Write Argument Summary

Write {workspace}/analysis/claims/argument_summary.md:

A human-readable summary (800 words max) that includes:

• The main thesis
• Each sub-claim with its evidence strength
• Contested claims and what the evidence says on each side
• Weak claims and what additional evidence would strengthen them
• Any overclaim flags
• Whether debate is recommended and for which claims

This summary is presented at Gate 4 for human approval.

Quality Rules

• Every claim MUST link to at least one evidence unit — no unsupported claims
• Claims must not exceed what the evidence supports — overclaim detection is critical
• Contested claims must present both sides fairly, not suppress opposing evidence
• Hedge levels must match evidence strength — do not use strong language for weak evidence
• The argument tree must be logically coherent — sub-claims should actually support the thesis
• Causal claims require causal evidence (or must be hedged as "suggestive")
• Use British English in all output text