Campaign Persona Check

Segment B: Green-to-SDP tactical defector, 30–45 (background segment — do not write toward explicitly)

• Green party lost most in its own urban strongholds in 2023
• SDP deliberately targeted the left-liberal vote pool with PM-race framing
• These voters share Green values but voted instrumentally
• Strategic note: Content written well for Segment A will reach B as a side effect — the overlap is high enough that separate targeting adds no value and risks diluting focus. Do not name B as a primary or co-primary target. If content happens to address the credibility gap that drove tactical defection, note it briefly, but don't optimize for it.

TIER 2 — Active expansion targets (confidence noted, but write toward them deliberately)

These are not just "be aware of" segments — they are deliberate targets. The data foundation is less complete than Tier 1, but the strategic rationale is strong enough to write content explicitly aimed at them. Always note the confidence level; never pretend the hypothesis is proven. But do write toward them, not just around them.

Segment C: Kokoomus arvoliberaali, 35–55, johtotehtävissä

• Kokoomus got 41% support among top income quartile, 41% among senior managers/upper employees
• 34% of university-educated voters chose Kokoomus
• GAL–TAN score 4.70 — the liberal wing of Kokoomus is measurably more socioculturally liberal than PS voters (6.48)
• Only 64% agreed "state should prioritize native Finns" — vs 94% among PS voters
• Strategic rationale: A senior IT/finance professional running as a Green candidate is a genuinely unusual signal — it may breach the identity barrier precisely because it doesn't fit the expected Green profile. Lauri's professional background is the hook, not Green party membership.
• How to write toward them: Lead with economic pragmatism and professional credibility. Avoid party-coded language. Frame education and digital infrastructure as competitiveness arguments, not values arguments. Speak peer-to-peer, not activist-to-professional.
• Identity barrier: "Green voter" is not how this person sees themselves. Never ask them to become one — ask them to evaluate Lauri as a candidate.

Segment D: RKP voter, arvoliberaali, kaksikielinen, 30–55

• RKP voters have the most similar GAL–TAN profile to Green voters of any party (4.19 vs Green ~2.x)
• RKP loyalty has declined: 68% of Swedish-speakers voted RKP in 2015, 58% in 2023
• 25% of 2023 RKP voters were Finnish-speaking (up sharply from 2003)
• Strategic rationale: The value alignment here is the strongest measurable overlap outside the Green base. Finnish-speaking RKP voters — now 25% of RKP's electorate — are the most moveable sub-segment since their vote is less anchored to language identity.
• How to write toward them: Emphasize civil rights, rule of law, and international openness — themes that resonate on both sides of the Green/RKP divide. Digital rights framed as civil rights is the natural bridge. Avoid framing that reads as dismissive of minority concerns.
• Identity barrier: For Swedish-speakers, language politics may outweigh everything else. Don't try to win them on platform alone — focus on Finnish-speaking RKP voters first.

TIER 3 — Pure campaign hypothesis (flag clearly, low confidence)

The claim that IT policy, data privacy, digital sovereignty, or education-as-economic-strategy resonate as voting issues with any of the above segments is not supported by the election studies. These themes are Lauri's campaign platform — not measured voter priorities. They may land well, or not at all. Treat messaging in this space as hypotheses to test, not as proven.

How to Use This Skill

Mode 1: Reviewing existing content

When Lauri shares a piece of content for review, do this in order:

1. Identify the implied audience. Who is this content actually speaking to? State it explicitly.
2. Map to personas. Which segment(s) does it address? Be precise.
3. Check the confidence tier. If it's aimed at Tier 2/3 segments, note that.
4. Identify blind spots. Which segments are being ignored or actively alienated by this content?
5. Give 2–3 concrete improvement suggestions — not rewrites, just directions.

Format: conversational, direct. Not a checklist. One paragraph per point.

Mode 2: Writing new content

When producing new content, first ask (or infer from context): who is the primary target?

If Lauri specifies a persona or segment, write for that segment explicitly. If not specified, default to Segment A (core Green, young educated urban woman) as the primary voice. Segment B overlaps heavily with A and will be reached through A-targeted content — do not name it as a separate target.

For content on economics, competitiveness, IT infrastructure, or education-as-investment: actively consider Segment C (Kokoomus liberal) as a co-primary target — these are topics where Lauri's professional background gives him the most credibility with that group, and where the identity barrier is lowest.

For content on civil rights, digital rights, openness, or international cooperation: actively consider Segment D (RKP arvoliberaali) as a co-primary target — the GAL-value alignment is the strongest measurable bridge between these voters and Lauri's platform.

For each piece of content, before writing:

• State the target segment and confidence tier
• State the one thing this content needs to communicate to land with that segment
• Then write

After writing:

• Flag any element that assumes Tier 3 resonance (IT/privacy as voting priority) without validation
• Suggest one version or angle that would speak to a different segment

Mode 3: Strategic resonance check

When Lauri asks "will this resonate with X?" or "how do I reach Y?":

• Answer based on what the data actually says about that group's values and priorities
• Clearly separate what the data supports from what is inference
• Recommend what would need to be true for the message to work, and how to test it

Segment Quick Reference

What Content Should NOT Do

• Speak to everyone — unfocused content reaches no one. Every piece should have a primary segment.
• Assume IT/privacy is a voting issue — it might be, but it's unproven. Frame these themes through consequences voters already care about (economic competitiveness, education, rights), not as ends in themselves.
• Alienate Segment A while chasing C/D — the data-validated base comes first. Cross-segment content is possible but requires care.
• Use party jargon — especially for Segments C and D, who are not Green voters. "Vihreä siirtymä", "ekologinen kompensaatio" etc. are tribal signals that close doors.

Relationship to Writing Style Skill

This skill governs who Lauri speaks to and what he says. The lavanti-writing-style skill governs how he says it. Both should be active when producing Finnish-language content.

When there is tension between persona-fit and writing style, default to the writing style — Lauri's voice is non-negotiable. Adjust the angle and framing, not the voice.