Distant Campaign Risk Assessment

Enemy Characteristics

• "无城郭之居，委积之守" (No cities or stored supplies)
• "迁徙鸟举，难得而制也" (Migrate like birds, difficult to control)
• Mobile vs. fixed targets
• Ability to avoid engagement

Decision Framework

Proceed if:

• Clear strategic benefit
• Manageable logistics
• Enemy can be decisively engaged
• Domestic stability is assured

Avoid if:

• Territory has no productive value
• Enemy can avoid battle
• Supply costs are prohibitive
• Domestic unrest is likely

Expected Outcomes

• Avoid costly failed campaigns
• Preserve national resources
• Maintain domestic stability
• Focus military efforts on achievable objectives

Verification

• Confirm all five assessment criteria (strategic value, logistics, enemy characteristics, domestic impact, historical precedent) have been evaluated
• Validate that the cost-benefit analysis accounts for supply line ratios (30 measures transported per 1 delivered)
• Check that the decision to proceed or avoid aligns with the framework conditions and domestic stability is not being jeopardized