Analyze oil & gas production data and generate performance analysis reports. Use this skill when the user provides production data (oil/water/gas rates, pressures, cumulative volumes, injection data) in any format (Excel tables, CSV, pasted numbers, or verbal descriptions) and wants performance analysis, decline curve analysis, water cut trend analysis, injection-production response evaluation, production forecast, or a written performance report. Trigger on keywords like "生产分析"、"产量递减"、"含水上升"、"注采分析"、"动态分析"、"decline curve"、"production analysis"、"water cut trend"、"production forecast"、"DCA"、"Arps decline"、"水驱曲线"、"甲型/乙型曲线"。Also use when user says "帮我分析这些生产数据" or pastes a table of monthly/daily production numbers.
Analyze production performance data and generate structured reports with trend analysis, decline curve fitting, and development recommendations.
This skill covers:
Turn raw production numbers into actionable insights. Always explain the engineering reasoning behind the analysis, not just the arithmetic.
Accept any combination of:
Minimum data needed for each analysis type:
| Analysis | Minimum Required |
|---|---|
| Rate trend | ≥ 3 time-rate data points |
| Decline curve | ≥ 6 time-rate points in declining phase |
| Water cut trend | Time series of oil + water rates or water cut % |
| Injection-production | Paired injection and production volumes |
If minimum data is not available, flag it and show what can still be calculated.
Default to Chinese (Simplified) unless the user requests English.
Extract columns from the input and create a clean working table:
| Date | Oil Rate (m³/d) | Water Rate (m³/d) | Gas Rate (10⁴m³/d) | Liquid Rate (m³/d) | Water Cut (%) | THP (MPa) | BHP (MPa) | Cumulative Oil (m³) |
|---|
Identify:
Compute:
Classify the well or field into a production stage:
| Stage | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| 上升期 / Buildup | Rate increasing, water cut low or stable |
| 稳产期 / Plateau | Rate relatively stable (< 5% annual decline) |
| 递减期 / Decline | Sustained rate decline |
| 高含水期 / High Water Cut | Water cut > 60%, rate declining |
| 低产期 / Stripper | Rate < economic limit, late life |
Apply only to the declining phase. Do not fit to buildup or plateau periods.
Exponential decline (最常用 for stable reservoir behavior):
q(t) = qi × e^(-Di × t)
Where:
qi = initial rate at start of decline (m³/d)Di = nominal decline rate (1/time)t = time since start of declineLinearize: ln(q) = ln(qi) - Di × t
Estimate Di from slope of ln(q) vs t regression.
Hyperbolic decline (变递减率, most common in practice):
q(t) = qi × (1 + b × Di × t)^(-1/b)
Where b = hyperbolic exponent (0 < b < 1 for most wells)
Estimate by non-linear curve fitting:
Report fit quality:
Forecast: Project production to:
Show:
预测时间节点 | 预测日产量 (m³/d) | 预测累产 (m³) | 累计递减率 (%)
Method 1: Time-water cut plot (含水率–时间曲线)
Method 2: Recovery vs Water Cut (甲型水驱特征曲线)
ln(Wo) = a + b × Np
Where Wo = cumulative water production, Np = cumulative oil production.
Linearize on semi-log scale. If linear → water drive is regular.
Forecast:
Np_at_Fw = [(ln(Wo_limit) - a) / b]
Where Wo_limit corresponds to the economic water-oil ratio limit.
Method 3: Water-Oil Ratio vs Cumulative Oil (乙型水驱特征曲线)
WOR = a × e^(b × Np)
Semi-log plot: ln(WOR) vs Np should be linear if regular water drive.
Applicable conditions: relatively homogeneous reservoirs under stable water drive with consistent displacement. For highly heterogeneous or layered reservoirs, prefer 甲型 (Type A) or use both for cross-validation.
State which method was applied and why (data availability, linearity quality).
If injection data is available:
| Metric | Formula | Typical Target |
|---|---|---|
| 注采比 (Injection-Production Ratio) | IPR = Qi / (Qo + Qw) | ≥ 1.0 |
| 累计注采比 | Cumulative IPR = ΣQi / Σ(Qo + Qw) | |
| 地下亏空 (Void Replacement) | Voidage = Qo × Bo + Qg × Bg + Qw × Bw - Qi × Bwi | Positive = under-injection (reservoir pressure declining) |
| 注水见效率 | Field judgment based on IPR trend vs rate response |
If Bo and Bw are not provided, use defaults (Bo = 1.2 at initial reservoir pressure for moderate-API crude, Bw = 1.0, Bg calculated from reservoir pressure and temperature if gas data available) and state all assumptions clearly.
# [Well/Field Name] 生产动态分析报告
> 数据期间:[Start Date] — [End Date]
> 数据频率:[Daily / Monthly]
> 分析目的:[Rate trend / Decline / Water cut / Full performance]
---
## 一、生产概况
| 指标 | 数值 |
|------|------|
| 初始产量 (峰值) | m³/d(日期:) |
| 当前产量 | m³/d(日期:) |
| 累计产油量 | m³ |
| 累计产水量 | m³ |
| 当前含水率 | % |
| 生产天数 | d |
| 开采程度(如已知储量)| % |
---
## 二、产量趋势分析
[Narrative describing production trend: buildup, plateau, decline segments, anomalies]
### 生产阶段划分
| 阶段 | 时间段 | 特征 |
|------|--------|------|
| | | |
---
## 三、递减曲线分析
- 递减类型:[指数 / 双曲 / 调和]
- 拟合起始时间:[Date]
- 初始递减率 Di:[value] /月(年递减率:[value]%)
- 双曲指数 b:[value](适用于双曲递减)
- 拟合 R²:[value]
### 产量预测
| 时间节点 | 预测日产量 (m³/d) | 预测累产量 (m³) |
|---------|----------------|--------------|
| [+1年] | | |
| [+3年] | | |
| [+5年] | | |
| 达到经济极限 | | |
---
## 四、含水分析
- 当前含水率:[%]
- 含水上升趋势:[线性上升 / 加速上升 / 趋于稳定]
- 水驱特征曲线类型:[甲型 / 乙型]
- 水驱特征方程:[equation]
- 预测含水 80% 时累计产油量:[m³]
- 预测含水 95% 时累计产油量:[m³](如有数据支撑)
---
## 五、注采分析(如有注入数据)
| 指标 | 数值 |
|------|------|
| 本期注采比 | |
| 累计注采比 | |
| 地下亏空 / 充填 | m³ |
| 注水见效评价 | |
---
## 六、问题诊断
[List observed anomalies: sudden rate drops, abnormal pressure behavior, unexpected water cut spikes, etc. — with potential causes]
| 现象 | 可能原因 | 建议措施 |
|------|---------|---------|
| | | |
---
## 七、开发建议
[Specific, data-backed recommendations: stimulation, workover, injection adjustment, infill wells, artificial lift optimization]
---
## 八、数据说明与局限性
[Note any data gaps, assumed values, or methodological limitations]
If the user provides data in non-standard units, convert and state:
| From | To | Factor |
|---|---|---|
| bbl/d | m³/d | × 0.15899 |
| STB/d | m³/d | × 0.15899 |
| Mcf/d | 10⁴m³/d | × 0.02832 |
| MMcf/d | 10⁴m³/d | × 28.317 |
| ton/d (oil) | m³/d | ÷ [density in t/m³] |
Default oil density for conversion: 0.85 t/m³ (API ~35) — state if different value used.
Apply these diagnostic principles automatically when reviewing production data:
| Observation | Likely Cause | Suggested Action |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid initial decline then stabilization | Skin cleanup or drainage stabilization | Monitor; may not need intervention |
| Sudden rate drop (not planned) | Mechanical failure, scale, wax, sand | Workover, stimulation, or lifting adjustment |
| Accelerating decline | Pressure depletion, reservoir boundaries | Pressure support, infill drilling |
| Sharp water cut increase | Water breakthrough, coning, channeling | Conformance treatment, production control |
| GOR increasing beyond bubble point GOR | Gas cap invasion or solution gas drive | Reduce drawdown, consider gas cap protection |
| Injection pressure rising | Formation plugging, fracture closure | Acid treatment of injector, well test |
| Injection pressure falling | New fractures or thief zones opened | Tracer test, production logging |
| Recovery factor > 40% water drive | Good waterflood efficiency | Evaluate remaining potential |
Use this decision guide:
Has the well had consistent decline for ≥ 6 months?
No → Use trend analysis only, do not fit decline curve
Yes →
Is the decline rate relatively constant?
Yes → Use exponential (b = 0)
No →
Is the decline rate decreasing over time?
Yes → Use hyperbolic (0 < b < 1)
Is b approaching 1 from fit?
Hyperbolic b ≈ 1 → Use harmonic
Before delivering analysis, verify:
This skill should activate for prompts such as: