Smart Money Tracker

Run the OnchainOS pre-flight check:

onchainos dex-market signal-chains

This returns the list of chains with signal support. If it fails, OnchainOS is not properly configured -- see config/mcp-setup-guide.md.

Command Index

All commands are read-only. No trades are executed.

Parameter Reference

scan

Discover recent smart money activity.

smart-money-tracker scan --chains ethereum,solana,base --categories whale,fund --lookback-hours 24

Return Schema:

SmartMoneySignal:
  timestamp: integer              # Unix ms
  scan_params:
    chains: string[]
    categories: string[]
    lookback_hours: integer
  signals:
    - wallet_address: string
      wallet_type: string         # "whale" | "fund" | "kol" | "mev" | "dex_trader"
      wallet_label: string        # Known label if available, else truncated address
      chain: string
      action: string              # "buy" | "sell" | "add_liquidity" | "remove_liquidity"
      token_address: string
      token_symbol: string
      amount_usd: number
      tx_hash: string
      signal_timestamp: integer   # When the onchain action occurred (Unix ms)
      signal_age_min: integer     # (now - signal_timestamp) / 60000
      signal_strength: string     # "HIGH" | "MEDIUM" | "LOW" | "STALE"
      strength_score: number      # 0.0 - 1.0
      security_check:             # GoPlus result summary
        is_honeypot: boolean
        buy_tax_pct: number
        sell_tax_pct: number
        is_open_source: boolean
        holder_concentration_pct: number
        overall: string           # "SAFE" | "WARN" | "BLOCK"
      is_actionable: boolean      # true only if: strength != STALE AND security == SAFE

track-wallet

Monitor a specific wallet address for position changes.

smart-money-tracker track-wallet --address 0x1234...5678 --chain ethereum --lookback-hours 72

Pre-checks before tracking:

1. GoPlus check_address_security -- BLOCK if malicious, phishing, or blacklisted.
2. OnchainOS wallet-portfolio all-balances -- retrieve current holdings.

Return Schema:

WalletTrackResult:
  wallet_address: string
  wallet_label: string
  address_security: object        # GoPlus check_address_security result
  chain: string
  current_holdings:
    - token_symbol: string
      token_address: string
      balance_usd: number
      pct_of_portfolio: number
  recent_activity:
    - action: string
      token_symbol: string
      amount_usd: number
      timestamp: integer
      tx_hash: string
      signal_age_min: integer
  stats:
    total_portfolio_usd: number
    num_tokens: integer
    largest_position_pct: number
    activity_count_7d: integer

evaluate

Deep analysis of whether a specific signal is worth following.

smart-money-tracker evaluate --signal-token 0xabcd...ef01 --signal-wallet 0x1234...5678 --chain ethereum

Returns full evaluation: token security, signal decay status, wallet historical performance, liquidity analysis, and a FOLLOW / SKIP / BLOCK recommendation.

leaderboard

Top performing smart money wallets ranked by realized PnL.

smart-money-tracker leaderboard --chain solana --period 30d --category whale

Returns ranked list of wallets with: PnL, win rate, number of trades, average holding period, and best/worst trades.

copy-plan

Generate a trade plan based on a signal. This command ALWAYS outputs with the [REQUIRES HUMAN APPROVAL] header. No exception. No override.

smart-money-tracker copy-plan --signal-token 0xabcd...ef01 --chain ethereum --size-usd 500

Pre-conditions (ALL must pass):

1. Signal age < 30 min (configurable via signal_max_age_min)
2. GoPlus token security = SAFE (no BLOCK flags)
3. Token liquidity > $100K TVL
4. Size <= max_copy_size_usd ($1,000 default)

Returns: entry route, estimated costs, risk assessment, and the mandatory [REQUIRES HUMAN APPROVAL] block.

Signal Decay Model

Smart money signals lose alpha over time as the market absorbs the information. This skill applies a time-decay model to classify signal freshness.

Strength Tiers

Decay Function (Inlined from formulas.md Section 7)

signal_strength = initial_strength * exp(-decay_rate * time_elapsed_minutes)

Variables:
  initial_strength       = Original signal strength (0.0 to 1.0)
  decay_rate             = Decay constant (higher = faster decay)
  time_elapsed_minutes   = Minutes since signal was generated

Typical Decay Rates (Half-Life Table):

  | Signal Type            | Decay Rate | Half-Life   |
  |------------------------|------------|-------------|
  | CEX-DEX arb spread     | 0.15       | ~4.6 min    |
  | Funding rate anomaly   | 0.01       | ~69 min     |
  | Basis mispricing       | 0.005      | ~139 min    |
  | Smart money signal     | 0.02       | ~35 min     |
  | Yield opportunity      | 0.001      | ~693 min    |

For this skill, the smart money signal type has a decay rate of 0.02 and half-life of ~35 min.

Worked Example:
  initial_strength = 0.90  (strong smart money signal)
  decay_rate = 0.02
  time_elapsed_minutes = 20

  signal_strength = 0.90 * exp(-0.02 * 20)
                  = 0.90 * exp(-0.40)
                  = 0.90 * 0.6703
                  = 0.603

  Signal has decayed from 0.90 to 0.60 in 20 minutes -- still MEDIUM tier.

Caveats:
  - Decay rates are empirical estimates; calibrate based on observed opportunity persistence.
  - Signal strength below 0.3 generally means the opportunity has likely been arbitraged away.
  - Combine signal decay with a freshness timestamp in output displays.

Simplified Linear Decay (for tier classification)

strength_score = max(0, 1 - (age_min / 120))

Signal Classification Logic

if age_min <= 5:
    strength = "HIGH"
    is_actionable = true (if security passes)
elif age_min <= 30:
    strength = "MEDIUM"
    is_actionable = true (if security passes)
elif age_min <= 120:
    strength = "LOW"
    is_actionable = false  # Do NOT recommend