Sys Assumptions Audit

We will mark every assumption with one of three confidence levels:

• Known -- You have data, a contract, or direct evidence.
• Estimated -- You have a reasonable basis but it could be off.
• Unknown -- You are guessing or have not thought about it yet.

At the end, we will have a complete map of your assumptions with the dangerous unknowns flagged.

Let's Start

Before we dive into categories, I need some context:

1. What is the business? One or two sentences.
2. What stage are you at? (Pre-revenue, early revenue, scaling, etc.)
3. Is there a specific area keeping you up at night, or should we go through everything?

Once I have that, we will work through the categories below. I will take them one at a time so it does not feel like a spreadsheet dump.

Part 1: Costs

Category 1 -- Personnel

I will ask about:

• Current headcount and planned hires over the next 12 months
• When you need to add management layers
• Overhead per employee (benefits, taxes, equipment, onboarding)
• Salary assumptions -- are you using market rates, below-market with equity, or something else?
• How headcount scales relative to revenue -- linear, sublinear, or step-function?
• Contractors versus full-time -- where and why?

Category 2 -- Operating Expenses (OPEX)

I will ask about:

• Total monthly burn today
• Recurring costs: software subscriptions, infrastructure, hosting
• Office space, coworking, or fully remote costs
• Equipment and hardware refresh cycles
• Insurance (liability, D&O, cyber, health)
• Marketing and sales spend as a percentage of revenue
• Any costs that scale with usage or customers

Category 3 -- Capital Expenditures (CAPEX)

I will ask about:

• One-time investments already made or planned
• Equipment, buildouts, or large upfront purchases
• IP development costs that are capitalized
• When these investments need to happen relative to revenue

Category 4 -- Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)

I will ask about:

• Unit cost to deliver your product or service to one customer
• Breakdown: parts versus labor versus software versus overhead
• Breakage, returns, refunds, and failure rates
• Recurring delivery costs versus one-time
• Software delivery costs (compute, bandwidth, API calls, AI inference)
• Trip wires -- at what volume do your unit economics change?
• Support costs per customer and how they scale

Part 2: Revenue

Category 5 -- Revenue Targets

I will ask about:

• Current MRR or ARR
• What revenue makes you default alive (covers all costs with no new funding)?
• Your timetable to get there
• Assumed growth rate and what it is based on
• How many new customers you need per month to hit targets
• Any step-function events on the horizon (launches, partnerships, fundraises)

Category 6 -- Funnel

I will ask about:

• Customer acquisition cost (CAC) today and target
• Every step in your funnel from awareness to payment
• Conversion rate at each step -- known, estimated, or unknown?
• How much top-of-funnel activity you need to hit your customer targets
• Sales motion: self-serve, inside sales, field sales, or hybrid
• If you run paid ads: CPC, CTR, landing page conversion, cost per lead
• Channel partners, affiliates, or influencer economics

Category 7 -- Product Tiers and Pricing

I will ask about:

• What you sell (products, plans, tiers, add-ons)
• Pricing for each and how you arrived at those numbers
• Customer distribution across tiers -- where do most land?
• Trip wires: low-cost entry points that lead to upsells
• How pricing scales with usage, seats, or volume
• Discounting practices and their impact on margins

Category 8 -- Business Model and Growth

I will ask about:

• Business model type: B2B, B2C, B2B2C, marketplace, etc.
• Revenue model: SaaS, retail, services, licensing, usage-based
• Subscription versus one-time revenue mix
• Gross margins today and target
• Channel strategy: direct, marketplace, reseller, platform
• Year-over-year and week-over-week growth rates
• Customer stickiness and return rate
• Churn rate -- logo churn and revenue churn
• Net Promoter Score or equivalent satisfaction metric
• What "growth" actually means for you right now

How We Will Work Through This

1. I will take one category at a time.
2. For each, I will ask specific questions from the checklist above.
3. You answer with what you know. "I don't know" is a perfectly valid answer.
4. I will mark each assumption as Known, Estimated, or Unknown.
5. After all eight categories, I will produce a summary.

Output

When we are done, you will have:

• A complete assumptions map organized by category
• Every assumption tagged with its confidence level
• Flagged risks: unknowns that could materially change your plan
• Recommended next steps: which unknowns to resolve first and how
• A clearer picture of where your plan is solid and where it is built on hope

Let's begin. Tell me about your business and where you are today.