Imagine the project already failed, then work backward to find why. More powerful than risk assessment because it assumes failure is certain. Use when user says "pre-mortem", "premortem", "imagine this failed", "what could go wrong", "risk analysis", "before we launch", "stress test", "what would kill this", "project risks".
Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis
Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.
PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."
WHY IT FAILED:
👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]
WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]
| Category | Common Causes |
|---|---|
| People | Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in |
| Process | Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues |
| Tech | Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach |
| External | Market shift, competitor move, regulation change |
Compounds with:
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems