Polymarket Copytrading

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Finding Whale Wallets

• predicting.top — Leaderboard of top Polymarket traders with wallet addresses
• alphawhale.trade — Tools for copying and tracking top performers
• Polymarket Leaderboard — Official rankings (requires account)

Quick Start (Ad-Hoc Usage)

User provides wallet(s) directly in chat:

User: "Copytrade this wallet: 0x1234...abcd"
User: "What positions does 0x5678...efgh have?"
User: "Follow these whales: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..."

→ Run with --wallets flag:

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb... --dry-run

This is the simplest way - no setup needed, just pass wallets directly.

Persistent Setup (Optional)

For automated recurring scans, wallets can be saved in environment:

Top N auto-calculation (when not specified):

• Balance < $50: Top 5 positions
• Balance $50-200: Top 10 positions
• Balance $200-500: Top 25 positions
• Balance $500+: Top 50 positions

Polymarket Constraints:

• Minimum 5 shares per order
• SDK enforces $1.00 minimum position value (filters dust positions)

⚠️ Start Conservative: Begin with small amounts (--max-usd 5-10) and --dry-run to understand how the skill behaves before scaling up.

How It Works

By default, only buys execute. Pass --rebalance to also sell positions the whales have exited, or --whale-exits to sell only on whale exits.

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches positions from all target wallets via Simmer API
2. Combines using size-weighted aggregation (larger wallets = more influence)
3. Detects conflicts (one wallet long YES, another long NO) and skips those markets
4. Scores by conviction: positions held by 2+ wallets get full sizing, single-wallet positions get 50% sizing
5. Filters out drifted (>30% from entry) and stale (>90% or <10% price) positions
6. Applies Top-N filtering to concentrate on highest-conviction positions
7. Auto-imports missing markets from Polymarket
8. Calculates rebalance trades to match target allocations
9. Executes trades via Simmer SDK (respects spending limits)
10. Reports results back to user

$SIM Paper Trading

Copytrading supports $SIM mode — mirror whale positions using simulated money on Simmer's LMSR markets. No wallet or USDC required.

# Paper trade with $SIM (explicit)
python copytrading_trader.py --venue sim --wallets 0x123... --live

# Auto-detect: if your account has no linked wallet, $SIM is used automatically
python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123... --live

In $SIM mode:

• Trades execute on Simmer's LMSR at real Polymarket prices
• Each market gets an independent $10K $SIM balance
• Positions tracked in your Simmer portfolio (source: sdk:copytrading)
• Whale signals still come from real Polymarket data

Running the Skill

Run a scan (dry run by default — no trades):

python copytrading_trader.py

Execute real trades:

python copytrading_trader.py --live

Check positions only:

python copytrading_trader.py --positions

View current config:

python copytrading_trader.py --config

Override wallets for one run:

python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x123...,0x456...

Full rebalance mode (includes sells):

python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance

Sell when whales exit positions:

python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits

Reporting Results

After each run, message the user with:

• Current configuration (wallets, Top N, max position)
• Number of wallets fetched and total positions found
• Markets skipped due to conflicts
• Trades executed (or skipped with reason)
• Current portfolio positions

Example output to share:

🐋 Copytrading Scan Complete

Configuration:
• Following 2 wallets
• Top 10 positions, max $50 each
• Balance: $250.00 USDC

Fetched positions:
• 0x1234...abcd: 15 positions
• 0x5678...efgh: 22 positions
• Combined: 28 unique markets
• Conflicts skipped: 2

Top 10 by allocation:
1. "Will BTC hit $100k?" - 18.5% → BUY YES
2. "Trump pardons X?" - 12.3% → BUY NO
3. "Fed rate cut Jan?" - 9.8% → Already held
...

Trades executed: 4 buys ($180 total)
• Bought 45 YES shares on "Will BTC hit $100k?" @ $0.82
• Bought 120 NO shares on "Trump pardons X?" @ $0.15
...

Next scan in 4 hours.

Example Conversations

User: "Copytrade 0x1234...abcd" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x1234...abcd → Report what positions that wallet has and what trades would execute

User: "What is 0x5678...efgh holding?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x5678...efgh --dry-run → Show their positions without trading

User: "Follow these wallets: 0xaaa..., 0xbbb..., 0xccc..." → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0xaaa...,0xbbb...,0xccc... → Aggregate positions across all wallets, report results

User: "Copytrade this whale but only top 5 positions" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --wallets 0x... --top-n 5

User: "How are my positions doing?" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --positions → Show current Polymarket positions with P&L

User: "Show copytrading config" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --config → Display current settings

User: "Sell positions that whales have exited" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --whale-exits → Compares your positions to whales, sells any they've closed

User: "Do a full rebalance to match the whales" → Run: python copytrading_trader.py --rebalance → Includes both buys AND sells to match whale allocations

Finding Good Wallets to Follow

Common approaches:

1. Leaderboard tracking: Check Polymarket leaderboards for consistent performers
2. Whale watchers: Follow known profitable traders on social media
3. Specific strategies: Follow wallets known for weather, politics, or crypto trades

The skill works best when:

• Following 2-5 wallets with overlapping strategies (e.g. all politics-focused, or all crypto-focused)
• Wallets have similar conviction — mixing very different traders means most positions only appear in one wallet and get reduced sizing (50%)
• Wallets trade markets available on Polymarket

Conviction Tiers

When following multiple wallets, positions are scored by conviction:

• High conviction (held by 2+ wallets): full position sizing (max_usd)
• Low conviction (held by 1 wallet): 50% position sizing

High-conviction positions are prioritized in Top N selection. Single-wallet positions still trade, but with reduced size. Using just 1 wallet disables conviction scoring (all positions get full sizing).

Troubleshooting

"Order too small" / "below minimum (5)"

• Polymarket requires minimum 5 shares per order
• Increase --max-usd or reduce --top-n to concentrate into fewer positions

"No wallets specified"

• Provide wallet addresses in your message, e.g., "copytrade 0x1234..."
• Or set SIMMER_COPYTRADING_WALLETS environment variable for recurring scans

"Agent has no USDC balance"

• Need USDC in your Polymarket wallet, or use --venue sim for $SIM paper trading
• Check wallet is linked at simmer.markets/dashboard

"Conflict skipped"

• Wallets disagree on this market (one long YES, other long NO)
• Markets with net position < 10% are skipped

"All N positions filtered (X conflicts, Y drifted, Z stale)"

• All whale positions were removed by safety filters
• Try different target wallets, or reduce to 1 wallet to disable conviction scoring
• Drift filter skips positions where price moved >30% from whale's entry
• Stale filter skips near-resolved markets (price >90% or <10%)

"Insufficient balance"

• Not enough USDC for all trades
• Reduce SIMMER_COPYTRADING_TOP_N or SIMMER_COPYTRADING_MAX_USD

"Market could not be imported"

• Some markets may not be importable (resolved, private, etc.)
• These are skipped automatically

"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"

• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is not set in the environment
• The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
• Fix: export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>
• Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it

"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"

• Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract 0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC
• If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
• Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry