Variance Analysis

Three-way decomposition (mit Mixabweichung):

Mengenabweichung = (Ist-Menge - Plan-Menge) × Plan-Preis × Plan-Mix
Preisabweichung  = (Ist-Preis - Plan-Preis) × Plan-Menge × Ist-Mix
Mixabweichung    = Plan-Preis × Plan-Menge × (Ist-Mix - Plan-Mix)

Example — Revenue variance (Ertragsabweichung):

• Budget: 10'000 units at CHF 50 = CHF 500'000
• Actual: 11'000 units at CHF 48 = CHF 528'000
• Total variance: +CHF 28'000 favorable (positiv)
  • Mengenabweichung: +1'000 × CHF 50 = +CHF 50'000 (more units sold)
  • Preisabweichung: -CHF 2 × 11'000 = -CHF 22'000 (lower average price)
  • Net: +CHF 28'000

Headcount / Compensation Decomposition (Personal-/Lohnabweichung)

Used for analyzing payroll and people-cost variances.

Total Comp Variance = Ist-Personalaufwand - Plan-Personalaufwand

Decompose into:
1. Stellenabweichung (Headcount)     = (Ist-FTE - Plan-FTE) × Plan-Durchschnittslohn
2. Lohnabweichung (Rate)             = (Ist-Durchschnittslohn - Plan) × Plan-FTE
3. Mixabweichung (Level/department)   = Shift in grade/department composition
4. Zeitliche Abweichung (Timing)     = Hiring earlier/later than planned
5. Fluktuationseffekt (Attrition)    = Savings from departures
6. Sozialversicherungen              = AHV/IV/EO/ALV/BVG rate changes vs plan

Spend Category Decomposition (Aufwandkategorie-Zerlegung)

Used for operating expense analysis (Betriebsaufwand):

Gesamtabweichung = Ist-Aufwand - Plan-Aufwand

Decompose by:
1. Personalgetriebene Kosten     (salaries, benefits, AHV/BVG, recruiting)
2. Volumengetriebene Kosten      (hosting, transaction fees, commissions)
3. Ermessensausgaben             (travel, events, professional services)
4. Vertragliche/fixe Kosten      (rent, insurance, software licenses)
5. Einmalige Posten              (severance, legal, write-offs, project costs)
6. Zeitliche Verschiebungen      (spend shifted between periods vs plan)

Materiality Thresholds (Wesentlichkeitsgrenzen)

Setting Thresholds

Set thresholds based on:

1. Financial statement materiality: Typically 1–5% of a key benchmark (Ertrag, Bilanzsumme, Jahresgewinn)
2. Line item size: Larger line items warrant lower % thresholds
3. Volatility: More volatile items may need higher thresholds
4. Management attention: What level would change a decision?

Recommended Framework

Set CHF thresholds based on organization size. Common: 0.5%–1% of Ertrag for Erfolgsrechnung items.

Investigation Priority

When multiple variances exceed thresholds, prioritize:

1. Largest absolute CHF variance — biggest impact on Erfolgsrechnung
2. Largest percentage variance — may indicate process issue or error
3. Unexpected direction — variance opposite to trend or expectation
4. New variance — item that was on track and is now off
5. Cumulative/trending — growing each period

Narrative Generation (Kommentierung)

Structure for Each Variance

[Kontoposition]: [Positiv/Negativ] Abweichung von CHF [Betrag] ([Prozent]%)
vs [Vergleichsbasis] für [Periode]

Treiber: [Primary driver description]
[2–3 sentences explaining the business reason with specific quantification]

Ausblick: [Einmalig / Erwartet weiterhin / Verbessernd / Verschlechternd]
Massnahme: [Keine / Beobachten / Weitere Abklärung / Forecast anpassen]

Quality Checklist

• Spezifisch: Names the actual driver
• Quantifiziert: CHF and % impact of each driver
• Kausal: Explains WHY, not just WHAT
• Vorausschauend: States whether variance expected to continue
• Handlungsrelevant: Identifies required follow-up
• Prägnant: 2–4 sentences, not filler

Anti-Patterns to Avoid

• "Ertrag war höher als Budget wegen höherem Ertrag" (circular)
• "Aufwand war erhöht" (vague — which expenses? why?)
• "Timing" without specifying what was early/late
• "Einmalig" without explaining the item
• "Verschiedene Kleinposten" for a material variance

Waterfall Chart (Brückendiagramm)

Data Structure

Startwert:    [Budget/Vorperiode]
Treiber:      [List of contributing factors with signed amounts]
Endwert:      [Ist/aktuelle Periode]

Verification: Startwert + Summe aller Treiber = Endwert

Text-Based Waterfall Format

WATERFALL: Ertrag — Q4 Ist vs Q4 Budget

Q4 Budget Ertrag                                      CHF 10'000K
  |
  |--[+] Mengenwachstum (Neukunden)                    +CHF 800K
  |--[+] Expansionsertrag (Bestandskunden)             +CHF 400K
  |--[-] Preisreduktionen / Rabatte                    -CHF 200K
  |--[-] Kundenabgang (Churn)                          -CHF 350K
  |--[+] Währungsgewinne                               +CHF 50K
  |--[-] Timing (Deals verschoben auf Q1)              -CHF 150K
  |
Q4 Ist Ertrag                                         CHF 10'550K

Nettoabweichung: +CHF 550K (+5.5% positiv)

Bridge Reconciliation Table (Überleitungstabelle)

Waterfall Best Practices

1. Order drivers from largest positive to largest negative (or logical business sequence)
2. Keep to 5–8 drivers — aggregate smaller items into "Übrige"
3. Verify reconciliation (start + drivers = end)
4. Label each bar with amount and brief description
5. Include a "Gesamtabweichung" summary

Budget vs Actual vs Forecast (Plan-Ist-Forecast)

Three-Way Comparison

When to Use Each Comparison

• Ist vs Budget: Annual performance, compensation, Verwaltungsrat (board) reporting
• Ist vs Forecast: Operational management, identifying emerging issues
• Forecast vs Budget: Understanding how expectations changed since planning
• Ist vs Vorperiode: Trend analysis, sequential performance
• Ist vs Vorjahr: Year-over-year growth, seasonality-adjusted comparison

Forecast Accuracy (Forecast-Genauigkeit)

Forecast Accuracy = 1 - |Ist - Forecast| / |Ist|
MAPE = Average of |Ist - Forecast| / |Ist| across periods

Variance Trending

• Consistently favorable: Budget may be too conservative
• Consistently unfavorable: Budget too aggressive or execution issues
• Growing unfavorable: Deteriorating performance
• Volatile: Unpredictable business or poor forecasting methodology