Trading Risk Gate (Pre-Trade Safety)

Absorbs: ergodicity-check, law-of-ruin, win-rate-dominance

Unified pre-trade gate. Answers: "Should I take this trade?" by running three checks in sequence.

Triggers

"is this safe", "should I risk", "ruin", "Law #1", "veto", "ergodic", "sequence risk", "wr vs rr", "win rate stability", "why am I losing with 1:3", "absorbing state", "all-in", "bankruptcy"

The Three-Gate Pipeline

GATE 1: Law of Ruin          GATE 2: Ergodicity           GATE 3: WR Dominance
┌─────────────────────┐     ┌─────────────────────┐     ┌─────────────────────┐
│ P(Ruin) > 5%?       │ ──▶ │ Non-ergodic?         │ ──▶ │ WR < Breakeven?     │
│ 5 Domains:          │     │ Absorbing barrier?   │     │ Variance Drag > EV? │
│ Bio/Legal/Fin/      │     │ P(survive N) < 80%?  │     │ RR structure viable? │
│ Social/Psych        │     │                      │     │                      │
│ VETO if YES ❌      │     │ VETO if YES ❌       │     │ WARN if YES ⚠️      │
└─────────────────────┘     └─────────────────────┘     └─────────────────────┘

The Three-Gate Pipeline

GATE 1: Law of Ruin GATE 2: Ergodicity GATE 3: WR Dominance ┌─────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────┐ ┌─────────────────────┐ │ P(Ruin) > 5%? │ ──▶ │ Non-ergodic? │ ──▶ │ WR < Breakeven? │ │ 5 Domains: │ │ Absorbing barrier? │ │ Variance Drag > EV? │ │ Bio/Legal/Fin/ │ │ P(survive N) < 80%? │ │ RR structure viable? │ │ Social/Psych │ │ │ │ │ │ VETO if YES ❌ │ │ VETO if YES ❌ │ │ WARN if YES ⚠️ │ └─────────────────────┘ └─────────────────────┘ └─────────────────────┘

Layer	Domain	Event Horizon
1	Biological	Death, permanent disability
2	Legal	Incarceration, criminal record
3	Financial	Bankruptcy, margin call
4	Social	De-platforming, exile
5	Psychological	Burnout Stage 4, loss of agency

Trading Risk Gate