Market Research

2. Growth Analysis

• Historical growth rates
• Future projections (3-5 years)
• Growth drivers
• Market trends

3. Market Maturity Assessment

• Stage: Emerging, Growing, Mature, or Declining
• Market lifecycle position
• Implications for new entrants

4. Entry Barriers

• Technical barriers
• Brand/network effects
• Regulatory requirements
• Capital requirements
• Customer acquisition costs

5. Distribution Channels

• How apps in this category reach users
• App Store dynamics
• Alternative channels (web, enterprise, etc.)

6. Revenue Potential

• Average revenue per user (ARPU)
• Conversion rates
• LTV (Lifetime Value)
• Revenue models in use

Output Structure

{
  "market_category": "Task Management",
  "market_sizing": {
    "tam": {
      "value": "$4.5B",
      "description": "Global productivity software market",
      "methodology": "Total potential revenue if product served all users globally"
    },
    "sam": {
      "value": "$900M",
      "description": "iOS/macOS task management apps (20% of TAM)",
      "methodology": "Addressable via App Store distribution on Apple platforms"
    },
    "som": {
      "value": "$45M",
      "description": "Realistic 3-year capture (5% of SAM)",
      "methodology": "Based on typical indie app market share penetration"
    }
  },
  "market_growth": {
    "historical_growth": "12% CAGR (2021-2025)",
    "projected_growth": "10% CAGR (2026-2030)",
    "growth_drivers": [
      "Remote work adoption",
      "Increased digital task management",
      "Mobile-first workflows"
    ],
    "headwinds": [
      "Market saturation",
      "Consolidation toward major players"
    ]
  },
  "market_maturity": {
    "stage": "Mature",
    "characteristics": [
      "Established leaders (Todoist, Things)",
      "Clear product categories",
      "Slowing growth rate",
      "Focus on feature differentiation"
    ],
    "implications": "Differentiation critical. Hard to compete on basics. Must have unique angle."
  },
  "entry_barriers": {
    "low": [
      "Technical implementation (task management is straightforward)"
    ],
    "medium": [
      "Building user base in crowded market",
      "Achieving reliable sync across devices"
    ],
    "high": [
      "Brand recognition (Todoist, Things have 10+ years)",
      "Network effects (team collaboration features)",
      "Customer switching costs (data lock-in)"
    ],
    "overall_assessment": "Medium-High - Technical execution is achievable, but market position is difficult"
  },
  "distribution_channels": {
    "primary": {
      "channel": "App Store",
      "percentage": "75%",
      "dynamics": "Discoverability challenging. ASO critical. Top charts dominated by established apps."
    },
    "secondary": [
      {
        "channel": "Direct website",
        "percentage": "15%",
        "dynamics": "For power users. Allows higher pricing. Better for subscription retention."
      },
      {
        "channel": "Word of mouth / Communities",
        "percentage": "10%",
        "dynamics": "Productivity communities, Reddit, Twitter. High-intent users."
      }
    ]
  },
  "revenue_potential": {
    "arpu": {
      "freemium": "$12/year (5% convert at $20/year)",
      "paid_only": "$30-40/year",
      "premium": "$60-100/year"
    },
    "conversion_rates": {
      "free_to_paid": "3-7% industry average",
      "trial_to_paid": "15-25% with 14-day trial"
    },
    "ltv": "$150-300 (2-5 year user lifecycle)",
    "realistic_year_1": "$50K-200K (1K-5K users at $40 ARPU)",
    "realistic_year_3": "$500K-2M (10K-50K users with growth)",
    "path_to_scale": "Requires strong differentiation, word-of-mouth growth, and retention >85%"
  },
  "market_opportunity_score": "6/10 - Moderate",
  "reasoning": "Large market with growth, but mature and competitive. Success requires clear differentiation and excellent execution. Not a 'gold rush' market, but sustainable business possible for well-positioned product."
}

How to Perform Market Research

Step 1: Define Market Scope

Question: What exact market are you analyzing?
- "Task management apps" (broad)
- "iOS task management apps" (narrower)
- "AI-powered task management for Apple users" (specific)

Start specific for better analysis.

Step 2: Size the Market (TAM/SAM/SOM)

TAM Calculation:

Method 1: Top-down
- Global productivity software market: $50B
- Task management segment: ~10% = $5B TAM

Method 2: Bottom-up
- Potential users globally: 500M knowledge workers
- Willing to pay for task management: 20% = 100M
- Average spend: $50/year
- TAM = 100M × $50 = $5B

SAM Calculation:

Filter TAM by what you can reach:
- TAM: $5B global
- Your distribution: iOS/macOS App Store only
- Apple users: ~30% of market = $1.5B
- Addressable via App Store: 60% = $900M SAM

SOM Calculation:

Realistic capture in 3 years:
- SAM: $900M
- New entrant market share: 0.5-2% realistic
- With strong differentiation: 5% optimistic
- SOM = $900M × 1-5% = $9M-45M

Step 3: Assess Growth

Use WebSearch to find:

• Market research reports
• Growth rate data
• Trend articles

Key searches:

"[category] market size 2026"
"[category] growth rate"
"[category] market trends 2026"

Step 4: Determine Maturity

Indicators:

Emerging (Good for new entrants):

• High growth (>20% CAGR)
• No clear leaders
• Rapid innovation
• Unclear best practices

Growing (Good opportunity):

• Strong growth (10-20% CAGR)
• Leaders emerging
• Product-market fit established
• Room for differentiation

Mature (Differentiation required):

• Moderate growth (5-10% CAGR)
• Clear leaders
• Established patterns
• Compete on specific niches

Declining (Avoid):

• Negative or flat growth
• Consolidation
• Commoditization

Step 5: Identify Barriers

Low barriers → Easier entry but more competition High barriers → Harder entry but better moat if you succeed

Assess:

• Technical complexity
• Brand importance
• Network effects
• Switching costs
• Capital needs

Step 6: Map Distribution

For iOS/macOS apps:

• App Store (primary) - understand ranking factors
• TestFlight (beta)
• Direct website (for pro users)
• SetApp / Bundle services
• Enterprise/B2B channels

Step 7: Estimate Revenue

Key metrics to research:

• Industry ARPU
• Typical conversion rates
• Churn rates
• User acquisition costs

Reality check:

Year 1: 1K-5K users (realistic for indie)
Year 2: 5K-20K users (with growth)
Year 3: 20K-100K users (if successful)

At $40 ARPU:
Year 1: $40K-200K
Year 2: $200K-800K
Year 3: $800K-4M

Common Questions

"How do I calculate TAM without market reports?"

Bottom-up approach:

1. Estimate target user count (e.g., "iOS users who manage tasks")
2. Research willingness to pay (look at competitor pricing)
3. Multiply: TAM = Users × Average Spend

Proxy approach:

1. Find similar market (e.g., "Calendar apps")
2. Adjust for your market differences
3. Validate with multiple sources

"What's a 'good' market size?"

For indie developers:

• SOM > $5M: Good opportunity
• SOM $1-5M: Viable if low competition
• SOM < $1M: Likely too small unless niche/passion project

Remember: $1M SOM = ~25K users at $40 ARPU (achievable!)

"How mature is too mature?"

Mature markets CAN work if:

• You have clear differentiation
• Targeting underserved niche
• Better execution than incumbents
• Novel business model

Avoid if:

• No differentiation angle
• Dominant players with network effects
• Declining growth
• Your idea is "me too"

Integration with Other Skills

Use market-research after initial discovery:

1. product-agent → Problem validation
2. market-research → Market opportunity sizing
3. competitive-analysis → Understand players
4. → Decision: Build vs. Don't Build

Example Research Flow

User asks: "Research the market for habit tracking apps"

You do:

1. Define scope:

   • "iOS habit tracking apps targeting personal development users"

2. Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM:

   • TAM: Personal development app market $3B
   • SAM: iOS habit tracking apps $300M (10%)
   • SOM: Realistic 3-year capture $15M (5%)

3. Growth analysis (WebSearch):

   • Search: "habit tracking app market growth 2026"
   • Result: 15% CAGR, driven by wellness trends

4. Maturity:

   • Stage: Growing (strong leaders emerging but room for innovation)
   • Key players: Streaks, Habitica, Way of Life

5. Barriers:

   • Low: Technical (habit tracking is simple)
   • Medium: Building habit formation psychology
   • High: Established apps have user data (switching cost)

6. Distribution:

   • App Store: 80% (ASO critical)
   • Wellness communities: 15%
   • Influencer partnerships: 5%

7. Revenue potential:

   • ARPU: $20/year (mix of $2.99 one-time and $5/mo subscriptions)
   • Year 3 realistic: $300K (15K users)

8. Present findings:

   Market Research: Habit Tracking Apps
   
   Market Size:
   - TAM: $3B (personal development apps)
   - SAM: $300M (iOS habit tracking)
   - SOM: $15M (5% realistic 3-year capture)
   
   Growth: 15% CAGR (wellness trend-driven)
   Maturity: Growing (opportunity for innovation)
   
   Opportunity Score: 7/10 - Good
   
   Reasoning: Growing market with room for differentiation.
   Not overcrowded like task management. Wellness trend tailwind.
   Success depends on unique habit formation approach and
   strong retention (>70%).
   
   Revenue Potential:
   - Year 1: $20K-100K
   - Year 3: $200K-1M
   - Requires: Good ASO, word-of-mouth, community building
   

Tips for Accurate Research

1. Use Multiple Sources: Don't rely on one number
2. Be Conservative: Better to underestimate than over
3. Validate with Proxies: Compare to similar successful apps
4. Check App Annie/Sensor Tower: For actual app market data
5. Read Financial Reports: Public companies disclose market data

When to Run This Analysis

Perfect timing:

• After discovery shows potential
• Before committing to development
• When seeking funding (investors want market size)
• When setting revenue goals

Skip if:

• Discovery showed "DON'T BUILD"
• Just experimenting/learning
• Building for personal use only

Output File Location

Save market research results to one of these locations:

• market-research.md (project root)
• docs/market-research.md (if docs folder exists)

Format: Use the JSON structure in the Output Structure section, wrapped in a markdown code block with context and summary.

Integration: The PRD generator skill will automatically look for this file and integrate the insights into the PRD's Market Context section (TAM/SAM/SOM, growth trends, entry barriers, revenue expectations).

Remember: Market research informs GO/NO-GO decisions. A big market with competition beats a tiny market with no competition (usually).