Scenario Narrative Engine — Scenario Narrative Construction Tool

Scenario Narrative Writing Template

Each scenario is described with the following structure:

1. Core Premise (1 paragraph)

• Why this combination of extreme values on both axes emerged
• Root Cause

2. Development Timeline (yearly key events)

### Timeline

| Timepoint | Event | Signal | Impact |
|-----------|-------|--------|--------|
| Y+1 | [Trigger event] | [Observable indicator] | [Primary impact] |
| Y+2 | [Chain reaction] | [Strengthening/weakening signal] | [Industry change] |
| Y+3 | [Structural transformation] | [New normal signal] | [Paradigm shift] |
| Y+5 | [Stabilization/new equilibrium] | [Settlement indicators] | [Long-term structure] |

3. Key Characteristics (5 items)

• Market structure
• Technology environment
• Regulatory framework
• Competitive dynamics
• Consumer/user behavior

4. Winners and Losers

• Player types that thrive in this scenario
• Player types that decline in this scenario

5. Early Warning Signals (3-5 items)

• Observable indicators that signal entry into this scenario

Early Warning Signal Design Framework

Signal Type Classification

Signal Design Principles

1. Observable: Must be trackable with publicly available data
2. Measurable: Define quantitative thresholds
3. Sufficient Lead Time: Leading indicators that allow response time
4. Uniqueness: Exclusive signals specific to a particular scenario

Signal Card Template

#### Early Warning Signal #N

- **Signal Name**: [Clear name]
- **Related Scenario**: [Which scenario]
- **Data Source**: [Where to observe]
- **Threshold**: [At what level to trigger alert]
- **Monitoring Frequency**: [How often to check]
- **Response Action**: [What to do when this signal occurs]

Cross-Scenario Analysis

Common Element Matrix

Robust Strategy Identification

Actions valid across all 4 scenarios = Robust strategy (execute unconditionally) Actions valid in 2-3 scenarios = Hedge strategy (conditional execution) Actions valid in only 1 scenario = Option (execute after signal confirmation)