Musk Challenge

Restate the plan back to the user in your own words to confirm understanding.

Step 2 — Extract Assumptions

Go through the plan and extract every assumption. Categories:

Market / User assumptions

• Who is the user? How do you know?
• What do they want? How do you know?
• Will they pay / adopt / switch? What evidence?

Technical assumptions

• Will the technology work at the required scale?
• Are performance estimates based on benchmarks or guesses?
• Are integration assumptions validated?

Resource assumptions

• How long will it take? Based on what?
• How much will it cost? Based on what?
• Who will do the work? Are they available?

Competitive / Market assumptions

• What are competitors doing? How do you know?
• Is the timing right? Why now vs. 6 months from now?
• What is the moat?

Organizational assumptions

• Does the team have the skills?
• Is there alignment on priorities?
• Are there hidden dependencies on other teams?

Present every assumption you found. For each one:

• State it explicitly in one sentence
• Categorize it (market, technical, resource, competitive, organizational)

Step 3 — Test Each Assumption

For each assumption, determine:

1. Is it fundamental? Required by physics, math, economics, or proven data. (Keep it.)
2. Is it accidental? Based on convention, precedent, habit, or unverified belief. (Challenge it.)
3. Is it testable? Can we validate it cheaply before committing? (Test it.)
4. What breaks if it's wrong? How much of the plan depends on this assumption? (Assess blast radius.)

Present as a table:

Highlight the high blast-radius, low-confidence assumptions — these are the plan's biggest risks.

Step 4 — Find the Bottleneck

Ask: What is the single constraint that most limits the plan's success?

This is the bottleneck. Everything else is secondary.

Identify:

• Is the bottleneck a real constraint or an assumption?
• If it's an assumption, can it be invalidated?
• If it's real, is the plan designed around it or fighting against it?

Present the bottleneck analysis to the user.

Step 5 — Generate Alternatives

Based on the assumption analysis, propose:

1. The highest-leverage change — the one modification to the plan that would most improve its chance of success. Explain the mechanism (how it works), why it's better, and what it costs.

2. The contrarian alternative — what the plan would look like if the biggest assumption is wrong. Not as a scare tactic, but as a genuine contingency.

3. The minimal test — the cheapest, fastest way to validate the riskiest assumption before committing to the full plan.

Step 6 — Revised Recommendation

Present:

Original plan strengths: what's solid and should be kept Assumptions to resolve first: ranked by blast radius Recommended modifications: specific changes with justification Suggested validation sequence: what to test, in what order, before committing

Ask the user: "Which assumptions do you want to dig into further?"

Red Flags to Call Out Immediately

• Reasoning by analogy ("Uber did X, so we should too")
• Unexplained costs or timelines
• Complexity increasing without clear benefit
• Hidden assumptions masquerading as facts
• Sunk cost reasoning ("we've already built X, so we should keep using it")
• Consensus without analysis ("everyone agrees this is the right approach")

Output Format

One step at a time. Present findings, challenge with evidence, wait for response. This is a stress test, not an attack — the goal is to make the plan stronger.