Strategize

/strategize pap [spec] — Pre-Analysis Plan

Draft a pre-analysis plan following AEA/OSF/EGAP standards.

Input: $ARGUMENTS — path to research spec file, a topic, or interactive for guided interview.

• If $ARGUMENTS includes a file path: read it (research spec from /discover interview)
• If $ARGUMENTS includes interactive: conduct the guided PAP interview (see below)
• Otherwise: treat as topic and draft with ASSUMED placeholders marked clearly

Agents: Strategist (in PAP mode), optionally strategist-critic Output: Pre-analysis plan document

Interactive PAP Interview (6-Question Guided Flow)

When invoked as /strategize pap interactive, ask these questions one at a time before drafting:

1. What is the research question?
2. What is the study design? (RCT / natural experiment / quasi-experimental / observational)
3. What are the primary outcome variables? (names, measurement, data source)
4. What is the identification strategy? (randomization mechanism / treatment assignment / source of variation)
5. What subgroup analyses are pre-specified? (with justification for each)
6. What multiple testing concerns exist? (number of primary outcomes, family-wise error rate plan)

After all 6 answers are collected, proceed to PAP drafting.

PAP Sections

Dispatch Strategist in PAP mode to produce all standard sections:

1. Study overview — research question, design, treatment, control
2. Outcomes — primary, secondary, mechanism variables with measurement details
3. Estimating equations — with full notation protocol
4. Subgroup analyses — pre-specified, with justification for each
5. Multiple testing correction — Bonferroni / Benjamini-Hochberg / Romano-Wolf (specify which and why)
6. Power calculations — MDE, baseline statistics, sample size, assumptions stated explicitly with sensitivity
7. Sample and exclusion rules — inclusion criteria, attrition handling, outlier treatment
8. Data and analysis — sources, software, randomization/assignment mechanism
9. Timeline — data collection, analysis, registration dates
10. Deviations log — empty template for tracking post-registration changes

Platform-Specific PAP Templates

Ask the user which registry platform they plan to use (if unclear from context):

AEA RCT Registry:

• Most structured format. All fields required.
• Must be registered before intervention begins.
• Strict section ordering: hypotheses → outcomes → analysis → power.
• Requires IRB information and funding sources.

OSF (Open Science Framework):

• More flexible format. Good for observational studies and natural experiments.
• Allows iterative updates with version history.
• Less rigid section structure — can adapt to study design.
• Supports pre-registration of observational/archival studies.

EGAP (Evidence in Governance and Politics):

• Development economics and political science focused.
• Additional governance and ethics questions required.
• Emphasizes pre-specification of heterogeneous treatment effects.
• Requires description of implementing partners and field conditions.

Observational Study PAP Adaptation

For observational, quasi-experimental, or natural experiment designs, adapt the PAP template:

• Identification strategy replaces randomization — describe the source of exogenous variation
• Comparison group replaces control group — define who is compared to whom and why
• Identification assumption discussion — explicitly state and defend each assumption
• Placebo and falsification tests — pre-specify what SHOULD NOT show effects
• Robustness to specification choices — pre-commit to bandwidth, functional form, sample restrictions
• Treatment of endogeneity concerns — document known threats and planned diagnostics

ASSUMED Placeholder Safety

CRITICAL: Flag every ASSUMED item clearly. The researcher must review and approve before registration.

When drafting a PAP from a topic (without a full research spec or interactive interview), many details will be assumed. For each assumed item:

• Mark it with [ASSUMED] in bold
• Explain what was assumed and why
• Provide the most reasonable default but flag it for review

A registered PAP with unchecked assumptions is worse than no PAP. The final section of every PAP must include:

## Pre-Registration Checklist

**Review every [ASSUMED] item before registering this plan.**

- [ ] [ASSUMED] Item 1 — [what was assumed]
- [ ] [ASSUMED] Item 2 — [what was assumed]

**Do not register until all items are reviewed and confirmed or corrected.**

Optional strategist-critic Review

After PAP creation, optionally dispatch the strategist-critic to review:

• Are identification assumptions clearly stated and defensible?
• Is the estimator choice appropriate for the design?
• Are power calculation assumptions reasonable? Show sensitivity.
• Are pre-specified subgroups justified (not fishing)?
• Are multiple testing corrections appropriate?
• Are any [ASSUMED] items potentially problematic if left uncorrected?

Save review to quality_reports/pre_analysis_plan_[topic]_review.md

Save PAP to quality_reports/pre_analysis_plan_[topic].md

Principles

• Strategist proposes, strategist-critic critiques. Adversarial pairing catches design flaws early.
• Strategy memo is the contract. Once approved, the Coder implements it faithfully.
• Catch problems before coding. A flawed strategy caught now saves weeks of wasted analysis.
• Multiple strategies are OK. Present trade-offs and let the user choose.
• The user decides. If Strategist and strategist-critic disagree after 3 rounds, the user resolves it.
• Pre-specification is the point. Everything in a PAP is decided before seeing outcomes.
• Be honest about what's exploratory. Label subgroups and secondary outcomes clearly.
• Power calculations require assumptions. State every assumption. Show sensitivity.
• A PAP is a commitment device. Make sure the researcher understands what they're committing to.