Development effort estimation with T-shirt sizing and risk adjustment
Estimate development effort for tasks, features, or projects. T-shirt sizing aligned with task management. Risk-adjusted.
Break into concrete sub-tasks:
1. [Sub-task] — [what changes]
2. [Sub-task] — [what changes]
3. Tests — [scope of test coverage needed]
4. Integration — [what needs wiring up]
| Size | Meaning | Typical Scope |
|---|---|---|
| S | Contained change | Single file, clear pattern, < 1 hour |
| M | Multi-file change | 2-5 files, some design needed, 1-4 hours |
| L | Cross-cutting change | 5+ files, new patterns, 4-16 hours |
| XL | Requires breakdown | Too large for single task -- split first |
Identify risk factors that increase effort:
| Risk Factor | Multiplier |
|---|---|
| Unfamiliar code area | 1.5x |
| No existing tests | 1.3x |
| External API dependency | 1.5x |
| Database migration | 1.3x |
| Cross-platform concerns | 1.5x |
| Unclear requirements | 2x |
Apply the highest applicable multiplier (don't stack).
## Estimate: [Feature/Task Name]
### Sub-tasks
| # | Task | Size | Risk | Adjusted |
|---|------|------|------|----------|
| 1 | [task] | M | Unfamiliar (1.5x) | M-L |
| 2 | [task] | S | None | S |
| 3 | Tests | M | No existing (1.3x) | M |
### Overall: [M-L]
### Confidence: [High/Medium/Low]
### Key Assumptions: [list]
### Unknowns: [list — each unknown reduces confidence]
Will: Analyze scope, decompose work, size tasks, identify risks, present estimate. Will not: Execute the work, create timelines, make commitments, or start implementation.
After estimation, user decides priority and scheduling. Proceed with implementation when ready.