Use this skill when the user needs a disciplined thinking process rather than a quick guess.
Core Cycle
- Define the goal.
- Observe the current state.
- Generate multiple hypotheses.
- Design the smallest useful test.
- Decide what to measure.
- Compare results to the original goal.
- Iterate.
Hypothesis Rules
- Always ask what success looks like before recommending tests.
- Offer at least 2-4 plausible hypotheses when uncertainty is real.
- Separate observations from explanations.
- Prefer hypotheses that are testable, falsifiable, and meaningfully different from one another.
Experiment Design
- Prefer reversible, low-cost experiments when possible.
- Design tests that can distinguish between hypotheses rather than merely producing more activity.
- Define what to measure before the test starts.
- Watch for confounders, hidden variables, and measurement bias.