Loserthink Workshop

The Discipline Lenses

Lens 1: The Economist's Check

Question: "What are the incentives?"

Economists know that people respond to incentives, not intentions. If you're confused by someone's behavior, ask what they're being rewarded for — that's what they'll keep doing, regardless of what they SAY they value.

Loserthink symptoms:

• Expecting people to act against their incentives because it's "the right thing to do"
• Ignoring the incentive structure and focusing on stated values
• Wondering why a policy isn't working when the incentives reward the opposite behavior

Fix: Map the incentives. "Who benefits from the current situation? What behavior is being rewarded? If you changed the incentives, would the behavior change?" Usually the answer is yes, and the problem isn't people — it's the incentive structure.

Lens 2: The Scientist's Check

Question: "Is this falsifiable? What would change your mind?"

Scientists know that a claim without a way to be proven wrong isn't really a claim — it's an article of faith. The most common loserthink error is holding beliefs that are structured to be unfalsifiable.

Loserthink symptoms:

• "You can't prove it ISN'T true" (unfalsifiable)
• "The experts agree" without specifying which experts or what they'd accept as disconfirming evidence
• Confusing correlation with causation
• Cherry-picking confirming evidence, ignoring disconfirming evidence
• "It's just common sense" (the least scientific statement possible)

Fix: "What specific evidence would make you change your mind about this? If you can't name it, you don't have a belief — you have a religion."

Lens 3: The Engineer's Check

Question: "Does this work in practice, regardless of theory?"

Engineers care about one thing: does it work? Theory is nice, but the bridge either holds or it doesn't. The most common loserthink from non-engineers is assuming that because something SHOULD work in theory, it WILL work in practice.

Loserthink symptoms:

• "This policy should reduce crime" without checking if it actually did
• Plans that sound logical but have never been tested
• Assuming second and third-order effects don't exist
• Designing systems for how people SHOULD behave rather than how they DO behave

Fix: "Has anyone actually tried this? What happened? If nobody has tried it, what's the smallest test you could run?"

Lens 4: The Psychologist's Check

Question: "What cognitive biases are in play?"

Psychologists know the catalog of ways human brains systematically get things wrong. If you don't know the catalog, you can't spot the bugs in your own reasoning.

Loserthink symptoms:

• Confirmation bias (only seeing evidence that supports your view)
• Anchoring (over-weighting the first number or frame you encountered)
• Cognitive dissonance (rewriting reality to protect a cherished belief)
• Dunning-Kruger (less competent people overestimate their ability)
• Mind-reading (attributing motives to others without evidence)
• Sunk cost fallacy (continuing because you've already invested, not because it's working)

Fix: "Which of these biases could be affecting your thinking right now? Be honest — the one you're least likely to admit is probably the one that's active."

Lens 5: The Historian's Check

Question: "Has this happened before? What happened then?"

Historians know that most situations have precedent. The most common loserthink is assuming your situation is unprecedented when it isn't.

Loserthink symptoms:

• "This time is different" (it almost never is)
• Not knowing the base rate for similar situations
• Assuming that because technology has changed, human nature has changed
• "Nobody has ever faced this challenge before" (they almost certainly have)

Fix: "When has something similar happened before? What was the outcome? What's the base rate for situations like this?"

Lens 6: The Entrepreneur's Check

Question: "What's the opportunity cost?"

Entrepreneurs think in terms of alternatives and trade-offs. The most common loserthink is evaluating something in isolation rather than against alternatives.

Loserthink symptoms:

• "This is a good idea" without asking "compared to what?"
• Spending time on something because it's positive without asking if the same time would produce more value elsewhere
• Not considering the "do nothing" option

Fix: "What else could you do with the same time, money, and energy? Is this the BEST use, or just a good use?"

The Diagnostic

After running through the lenses, present the diagnosis:

YOUR SITUATION: [One-sentence summary]

PRIMARY THINKING ERROR: [Which discipline lens reveals the biggest blind spot]
- What you're missing: [Specific insight from that discipline]
- How it's distorting your thinking: [The specific error]

SECONDARY ERROR: [Second biggest blind spot]
- What you're missing: [Insight]
- How it's distorting your thinking: [Error]

CORRECTED ANALYSIS: [How the situation looks when you apply the missing lenses]

RECOMMENDED ACTION: [What to do differently based on the corrected analysis]

The Meta-Lesson

Close with Adams's meta-point: "The goal isn't to become an expert in six fields. The goal is to be dangerous enough in each one to know when your home field is giving you a distorted picture. That's the difference between loserthink and clear thinking."

Ask: "Which discipline lens was most surprising or useful to you? That's probably the one you should study a little more — it's the biggest gap in your mental toolkit."

Related Skills

• reframe-engine — Both diagnose thinking errors, but the reframe engine offers 7 lenses for getting unstuck on a specific problem. Use the workshop to identify the error; use the reframe engine to find the new angle.
• media-decoder — Apply cognitive dissonance diagnosis to news stories and public narratives. The decoder uses the same tells in the context of media analysis.
• prediction-scorecard — Base rate thinking and unfalsifiability are prediction errors too. The scorecard catches these same errors when evaluating a specific forecast.

Related Frameworks

• loserthink.md — The core framework article
• cognitive-dissonance.md — The tells catalog used across multiple lenses
• confirmation-bias.md — A specific thinking error diagnosed in Lens 4
• mind-reading-fallacy.md — A specific thinking error diagnosed in Lens 4
• one-best-evidence.md — A diagnostic tool for cutting through multi-variable confusion