Diplomatic State Assessment

Examples from Practice

• In Qi: Advised Yan Pingzhong to give up territory and political power to avoid disaster
• In Zheng: Warned Zichan of coming turmoil and advised governing with caution and ritual
• In Wei: Identified many virtuous men, predicted safety from disaster
• In Jin: Predicted power consolidation in three families; advised Shuxiang on self-preservation

Decision Points

• If leadership is extravagant and power is consolidating, predict political upheaval
• If virtuous individuals abound, predict stability
• If ruling class is complacent while danger approaches, warn of imminent threat

Expected Outcomes

• Accurate prediction of political changes
• Ability to advise allies on avoiding disaster
• Recognition of which states will rise or fall

Validation

1. Confirm political leadership has been assessed for power concentration trends and signs of instability
2. Verify that at-risk individuals have been warned discreetly with specific self-preservation advice (divestment of power/territory)
3. Check that states with many virtuous men (君子) are identified as safe havens and those with extravagant, complacent leadership are flagged for upheaval