Use when the task involves evaluating a college baseball pitcher or pitching staff — including pitch-mix analysis, sequencing strategy, matchup scouting, platoon splits, and role recommendations (starter vs. reliever vs. closer).
Use this skill when the task requires a thorough pitching evaluation beyond ERA. The goal is to give coaches, analysts, and content teams a precise and actionable read on how a pitcher is performing, why, and what adjustments to expect or recommend.
Before evaluating any pitcher, establish:
Role and sample matter as much as the metrics themselves. A 12-start weekend arm and a 20-inning reliever require different analytical frames.
When pitch data is available (Trackman, Hawkeye, Yakkertech, or manually scouted):
A healthy starter arsenal typically looks like:
| Pitch Type | Typical Usage Range |
|---|---|
| Primary fastball | 40–60% |
| Secondary fastball or cutter | 0–20% |
| Primary breaking ball | 15–30% |
| Offspeed (change/splitter) | 10–25% |
A pitcher over-relying on one pitch (>70% usage) is either elite with that pitch or limiting himself — determine which from outcome data.
Elite put-away pitch: > 35% whiff rate on the pitch in two-strike counts.
Even without pitch-tracking data, sequencing can be evaluated from game logs and observation:
When sequence data is limited: read the BABIP vs. FIP gap. A large positive gap (ERA >> FIP) suggests batted-ball variance is punishing an otherwise solid sequence plan. A large negative gap (ERA << FIP) may indicate sequencing masking mediocre stuff.
Use these thresholds to recommend starter vs. reliever roles:
| Metric | Starter Profile | Reliever Profile |
|---|---|---|
| IP/start | 5.0+ | N/A |
| Pitches/start | 80+ | < 50 (multi-inning) |
| Arsenal depth | 3+ pitches | 2 pitches acceptable |
| BB/9 tolerance | < 3.5 | < 4.5 |
| Velocity (avg FB) | 89+ mph | 90+ preferred |
| Platoon split | Manageable | Can be hidden |
A two-pitch pitcher with elite stuff but a 4.5 BB/9 is likely a high-leverage late-inning arm, not a Friday starter.
For evaluating a pitching staff as a unit:
Standard splits to report:
| Split | Metric | Threshold to flag |
|---|---|---|
| vs. LHH | wOBA allowed | > .360 is vulnerability |
| vs. RHH | wOBA allowed | > .360 is vulnerability |
| RISP | BA allowed | > .280 is a clutch concern |
| 2-out | OBP allowed | > .380 is a sequencing concern |
When generating a series pitcher preview:
Keep each pitcher card to 6–8 lines. Do not pad with generic commentary.